Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
53%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #8
47%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Why the Model Favors Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +8.1 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Serve & return game +5.1 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Overall strength +4.1 Frances Tiafoe
Overall record & opposition quality +3.8 Frances Tiafoe
Age +1.7 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #26 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #14 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-09-29

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #8 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #19 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #20 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #30 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 55.1
ELO Rating: 1814.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1798.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 71.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.5
Clay: 24.9
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 90.4

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 66.1
ELO Rating: 1975.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1908.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 76.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.1
Clay: 29.9
Grass: 28.9
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
1
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Davidovich Fokina is narrowly favoured, 53% to Tiafoe’s 47%, with 23.4 games expected in this Round of 32 match. The forecast points to a close contest rather than a clear favourite.

Match Analysis

Davidovich Fokina’s stronger recent form and more effective return game are the main reasons for the slight lean his way. He beat Jenson Brooksby in straight sets here and Hubert Hurkacz in Chengdu, giving him a couple of strong recent results despite a loss to Matteo Berrettini in Tokyo. Tiafoe counters with the better overall standing and hard-court profile. Ranked eighth to Davidovich Fokina’s 26th, he has the stronger case on broader results, while the Spaniard’s serve-and-return combination gives him a route to disrupt Tiafoe’s service games. Both won their Shanghai openers in straight sets, so neither has a clear advantage from their start at the event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Frances Tiafoe) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Davidovich Fokina is projected for 4.9 aces and 1.7 double faults, while Tiafoe is at 6.3 aces and 2.0 double faults. Tiafoe’s slightly stronger serve supports the higher ace total, but Davidovich Fokina’s better return could narrow the difference.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.1 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 4.9 + Frances Tiafoe 6.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1.7 + Frances Tiafoe 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 4.9 aces

Frances Tiafoe

Expected 6.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 1.7 double faults

Frances Tiafoe

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

33.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (33.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s serve is the specific threat to the forecast: if it earns him enough free points, it could blunt Davidovich Fokina’s returning advantage and swing this close match.

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