Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Tabilo comes mainly from recent record by level and age, with additional support from serve and return dynamics and overall opposition quality. Recent record by level gives Tabilo a 4.1 percentage point boost because his Washington run included a win over Ben Shelton, a higher quality scalp than Struff has collected recently. Age contributes 3.3 points toward Tabilo in the model, which nudges the estimate in his favor. Serve and return factors add another 2.3 points toward Tabilo, even though both men post very similar serve profiles. Looking at the raw numbers, Struff is ranked 41 and brings a stronger Elo of 1734.6 versus Tabilo at rank 26 with an Elo of 1633.7. Form indices show Struff at 58.9 and Tabilo at 34.3, favoring Struff on recent form metrics. Fatigue is a real difference, with Struff already on court for 144 minutes in Cincinnati and Tabilo fresh at 0 minutes. Surface strength favors Tabilo more, 26.1 versus Struff’s 16.5, indicating Tabilo’s game translates a bit better to hard courts. Serve and return indices are nearly identical. Mean serve indices are 96.17 for Struff and 96.37 for Tabilo. Mean return indices are 87.00 for Struff and 86.43 for Tabilo. Over the last three matches, Struff has one win in Cincinnati and two recent losses in Toronto and Kitzbühel. Tabilo has one win (Shelton) and two recent defeats, including a straight sets loss to Hubert Hurkacz in Toronto.