Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #65
40%
VS

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #72
60%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

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Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current #65 2025-10-20
  • 3 mo ago #66 2025-07-21
  • 6 mo ago #77 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #109 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #99 2024-10-21

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current #72 2025-10-20
  • 3 mo ago #44 2025-07-21
  • 6 mo ago #44 2025-04-21
  • 9 mo ago #39 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #37 2024-10-21

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 48.5
ELO Rating: 644.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 245.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.1
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 85.3

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1065.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 107.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.2

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Kovacevic
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Matteo Arnaldi
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
vs
1
Matteo Arnaldi
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Vienna tournament, set against the backdrop of hard courts in Austria, Aleksandar Kovacevic faces Matteo Arnaldi in what promises to be a competitive match. The predicted winner is Matteo Arnaldi, with a probability of 59.84% to triumph against Kovacevic's 40.16%. The anticipated total number of games played is 24.0.

Match Analysis

Aleksandar Kovacevic, currently ranked 65, boasts a form index of 48.46 and an Elo rating of 644.24. His cumulative fatigue stands at 245 minutes, indicating he has spent considerable time on the court in this tournament. While his surface strength index is relatively strong at 7.10, his mean serve index (97.77) exceeds that of Arnaldi (95.46) by 2.31 points, which is not significant. Conversely, Kovacevic’s mean return index (85.32) is lower than Arnaldi's (87.17) by over 5 points, giving Arnaldi an advantage in return games. Matteo Arnaldi, ranked 72, comes in with a form index of 41.68 and a notably higher Elo rating of 1065.68, suggesting he has faced tougher competition recently. His fatigue is lower at 107 minutes, which may contribute to his on-court performance. In his last three matches, Arnaldi managed a victory against Tristan Schoolkate but faced two defeats against tougher opponents in Brussels and Shanghai. In contrast, Kovacevic has won all three of his recent matches, showcasing a more consistent form leading into this encounter.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi's higher Elo rating and lower fatigue level provide him with a notable edge heading into this match against Kovacevic. Additionally, Arnaldi's superior return index will be a critical factor, potentially allowing him to capitalize on Kovacevic's serve. Observing how each player manages their fatigue and adapts their strategies will be essential for understanding the match's outcome.

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