Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Tsitsipas comes mainly from his recent record by level and overall strength. That is reflected in his higher Elo (1744.85 versus Kovacevic 1549.86), better form index (52.62 versus 35.42), and superior surface strength index (27.05 versus 17.87). Those factors together account for the largest positive movement toward Tsitsipas in the explainability output. Secondary contributors pushing the prediction to Tsitsipas include overall record and opposition quality, plus a modest advantage in serve and return metrics. Kovacevic brings momentum from wins earlier this week in Winston-Salem, with straight set victories over Luca Van Assche and Felix Balshaw after a prior loss to Brandon Nakashima in Cincinnati. Tsitsipas also enters on decent form, beating Jenson Brooksby here and having split results in Cincinnati (a loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime and a win over Valentin Royer). Fatigue favors Tsitsipas somewhat, with 114 minutes on court in this event versus Kovacevic’s 167 minutes. Both players show very similar mean serve and return indices, so service potency is expected to trade points rather than create a lopsided advantage.