Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Aleksandar Vukic vs Sebastian Korda Prediction

Aleksandar Vukic

Rank: #79
40%
VS

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #23
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Korda

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Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Vukic

  • Current #79 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #66 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #69 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #83 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #70 2024-05-06

Sebastian Korda

  • Current #23 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #22 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #23 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #18 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #27 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Vukic

Form Index: 24.5
ELO Rating: 728.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 91.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 5.6
Grass: 8.0
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 86.8

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 41.1
ELO Rating: 1789.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1656.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.3
Clay: 17.0
Grass: 19.2
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Vukic
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Sebastian Korda
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Aleksandar Vukic
vs
0
Sebastian Korda
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Aleksandar Vukic and Sebastian Korda is set to take place in the Round of 64 at the prestigious Masters 1000 event in Rome, Italy, on clay surface. Based on current form and statistics, Sebastian Korda is favored to win with a probability of 60.42%, while Aleksandar Vukic holds a 39.58% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is approximately 23.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Korda, ranked 23rd in the world, boasts a solid Elo rating of 1789.89 and a form index of 41.11, indicating he is in better shape compared to Vukic, who is ranked 79th with a significantly lower Elo rating of 728.86 and a form index of 24.51. Korda's fatigue level stands at 0.0, suggesting he comes into this match fresh, while Vukic carries a notable fatigue level of 91.0 from previous matches. On clay, Korda's surface strength index of 17.02 also surpasses Vukic's 5.60, highlighting his greater proficiency on this surface. In their recent performances, Korda's last three matches include a win against Federico Cina and losses to top players like Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Vukic, on the other hand, shows a mixed bag of results, with a recent victory over Nicolas Moreno De Alboran, but prior losses against Kei Nishikori and Billy Harris. This indicates that while Vukic has some momentum from his last match, Korda's overall form and experience on clay make him a formidable opponent.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Korda's advantages in ranking, fatigue levels, and superior surface strength index position him as the likely winner in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Korda's ability to leverage his fresh legs and aggressive play style against Vukic, particularly in the early games of the match.

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