Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #10
51%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #24
49%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Why the Model Favors Alex de Minaur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.8 Andrey Rublev
Recent record by level +6.1 Alex de Minaur
Surface fit +1.4 Alex de Minaur
Age +1.2 Alex de Minaur
Recent form +1.2 Andrey Rublev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 51% for Alex de Minaur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #10 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #6 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #7 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-09-29

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #24 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #13 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #16 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 49.4
ELO Rating: 1819.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1879.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 282.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.4
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 36.3
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 91.6

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 54.4
ELO Rating: 1804.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1839.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 276.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.9
Clay: 37.2
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
1
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alex de Minaur is a narrow model choice, taking 51% to Andrey Rublev’s 49%. The forecast points to a competitive match of 23.9 games.

Match Analysis

Rublev’s serve-and-return package is the biggest counterweight, with the model giving that area its strongest push in his direction. He is projected to hit about three more aces, which could help him keep points short and limit de Minaur’s chances to pressure him from the baseline. De Minaur’s case rests on a stronger recent record by level, with smaller advantages in hard-court fit and age. He has won both of his Beijing matches, while Rublev has also won both of his, and Rublev’s recent form is marginally stronger.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Andrey Rublev) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

De Minaur is projected to hit 5.0 aces and 2.5 double faults, compared with 7.7 aces and 2.4 double faults for Rublev. Rublev’s higher ace projection points to more free points on serve, while the near-equal double-fault estimates suggest little difference in serving errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.4 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Alex de Minaur 5.0 + Andrey Rublev 7.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Alex de Minaur 2.5 + Andrey Rublev 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alex de Minaur

Expected 5.0 aces

Andrey Rublev

Expected 7.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alex de Minaur

Expected 2.5 double faults

Andrey Rublev

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex de Minaur's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (30.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s serve-and-return advantage is the clearest way to flip the narrow forecast. If it keeps de Minaur from using his return strength to extend points, the small gap between them could disappear.

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