Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #7
67%
VS

Hamad Medjedovic

Rank: #88
33%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #7 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #7 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-04-14

Hamad Medjedovic

  • Current #88 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #64 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #72 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 51.8
ELO Rating: 1852.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1917.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 105.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 61.8
Clay: 46.6
Grass: 49.0
Serve Rating: 55.9
Return Rating: 58.4

Hamad Medjedovic

Form Index: 63.5
ELO Rating: 1653.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1712.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 347.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 53.9
Clay: 41.6
Grass: 39.8
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Hamad Medjedovic
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Hamad Medjedovic
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 16 in Barcelona on clay at an ATP 500 event sees No. 7 Alex de Minaur meet No. 88 Hamad Medjedovic. The model leans to de Minaur as the likely winner (66.69% vs 33.31%) with a predicted total of about 23.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper de Minaur enters with the clearer pedigree: a world ranking of 7 and an Elo of 1852.1, compared with Medjedovic’s rank of 88 and Elo 1653.3. De Minaur’s proprietary form index sits at 51.8 versus Medjedovic’s 63.5, but cumulative fatigue sharply favors de Minaur (105 minutes on court this week to Medjedovic’s 347). Surface strength is slightly in de Minaur’s favor (46.6 vs 41.6), suggesting a small edge adapting to clay conditions. Serve and return profiles differ markedly. Medjedovic posts a very high mean serve index (98.5) against de Minaur’s 55.9 — a gap large enough to note — while his mean return index (89.4) also outstrips de Minaur’s 58.4 by a wide margin. Those differentials imply Medjedovic can both free up points on serve and be aggressive on return when fresh. Recent form: de Minaur is 2-1 in his last three (wins over Blockx and Ofner, a loss to Vacherot), with matches of 107–144 minutes showing resilience. Medjedovic arrives unbeaten in three matches at this event (wins over Trungelliti, Halys, Gaubas), though the heavy match minutes help explain his elevated fatigue tally.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Hamad Medjedovic) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Hamad Medjedovic wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay clash is modest: predicted aces for the match sit around 11.09. Clay’s slower, higher-bouncing nature typically trims ace opportunities, and that tempers Medjedovic’s big-serve edge. The double faults prediction also reflects clay and accumulated minutes — expected double faults are about 5.88, with Medjedovic’s workload likely to increase his share of those errors. Overall, the expected aces and expected double faults align with a slower-surface, longer-rally profile.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.1 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s higher ranking, superior Elo and lower in-tournament fatigue give him the projected edge, despite Medjedovic’s standout serve and return indices. The key factor to watch will be Medjedovic’s serve effectiveness under fatigue and whether de Minaur can neutralize it with consistent returns.

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