Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Alex de Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #10
62%
VS

Hubert Hurkacz

Rank: #41
38%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Why the Model Favors Alex de Minaur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +5.3 Alex de Minaur
Recent record by level +5.3 Alex de Minaur
Surface fit +4.2 Alex de Minaur
Serve & return game +1.6 Hubert Hurkacz
Age +1.2 Alex de Minaur

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Alex de Minaur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #10 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #6 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #7 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-09-29

Hubert Hurkacz

  • Current #41 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #72 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #72 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #78 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 1840.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1886.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 402.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.9
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 36.3
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 91.6

Hubert Hurkacz

Form Index: 67.3
ELO Rating: 1814.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1787.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 352.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.8
Clay: 23.1
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Andrey Rublev (2-1) hard Beijing 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-1) hard Beijing 167 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (2-0) hard Beijing 115 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Guerrieri (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Hubert Hurkacz
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Hubert Hurkacz
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alex de Minaur is favoured in the Beijing Semifinals, with a 62% win probability against Hubert Hurkacz’s 38%. The forecast calls for 24.3 total games, suggesting a contest that could go beyond two straightforward sets.

Match Analysis

De Minaur’s higher overall level and better hard-court fit underpin his advantage. Ranked 10th to Hurkacz’s 41st, he is also the stronger returner, a useful asset against a player whose serve is his biggest weapon. Both have won three matches in Beijing. De Minaur’s quarterfinal victory over Andrey Rublev stands out, while Hurkacz arrives after beating Karen Khachanov in straight sets. Hurkacz’s serve gives him a clear way to challenge De Minaur, but the Australian’s return game is better equipped to apply pressure across rallies.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Hubert Hurkacz) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Alex de Minaur wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hurkacz is projected to hit 11.0 aces, compared with 6.0 for De Minaur, reflecting his slightly stronger serve. Double faults are forecast at 2.1 for Hurkacz and 2.3 for De Minaur, a near-even difference.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.0 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Alex de Minaur 6.0 + Hubert Hurkacz 11.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Alex de Minaur 2.3 + Hubert Hurkacz 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alex de Minaur

Expected 6.0 aces

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 11.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alex de Minaur

Expected 2.3 double faults

Hubert Hurkacz

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex de Minaur's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hurkacz’s serving is the specific threat to the forecast. If he keeps De Minaur from putting sustained pressure on his service games, the advantage could shift.

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