Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Matteo Berrettini vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #48
35%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #10
65%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Why the Model Favors Alex de Minaur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +6.9 Alex de Minaur
Recent record by level +5.9 Alex de Minaur
Serve & return game +5.1 Matteo Berrettini
Surface fit +4.2 Alex de Minaur
Overall record & opposition quality +2.2 Alex de Minaur

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Alex de Minaur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #48 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #92 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #57 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #61 2025-10-27

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #10 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #8 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #6 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 45.7
ELO Rating: 1722.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1730.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 123.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.3
Clay: 28.2
Grass: 13.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.4

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 63.2
ELO Rating: 1933.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1912.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 200.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 44.6
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 36.3
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Matteo Berrettini
vs
1
Alex de Minaur
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The forecast favors Alex de Minaur, 65% to Matteo Berrettini’s 35%. In Vienna’s Quarterfinals, the projected total is 23.9 games, pointing to a competitive match.

Match Analysis

De Minaur’s higher ranking, stronger recent form and better record against quality opposition give him the steadier baseline. He has won both of his Vienna matches, including a three-set win over Tomas Machac. Berrettini has also won twice here, including a straight-sets win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Berrettini’s stronger serve gives him a way to shorten points and keep the score close. De Minaur, however, is the better returner and has the stronger hard-court profile, two advantages that support the forecast in his favor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Matteo Berrettini - Alex de Minaur) -2.4 Most likely spread: -3 (Alex de Minaur wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Berrettini is projected for 9.2 aces and 2.0 double faults, compared with 4.6 aces and 2.3 double faults for de Minaur. Berrettini’s more potent serve accounts for much of the expected ace gap, while the double-fault estimates are close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.5 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Matteo Berrettini 9.2 + Alex de Minaur 4.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Matteo Berrettini 2.0 + Alex de Minaur 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 9.2 aces

Alex de Minaur

Expected 4.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 2.0 double faults

Alex de Minaur

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Matteo Berrettini's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (37.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s serve gives him his best chance to upset the forecast. If it keeps de Minaur from applying consistent return pressure, the favorite’s hard-court advantage may not decide the match.

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