Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #7
63%
VS

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #34
37%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current Rank: #7 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #17 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #16 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #16 (2024-07-29)

Alex Michelsen

  • Current Rank: #34 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #38 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #36 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #44 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #60 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 48.1
ELO Rating: 2581.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1729.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 82.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.6
Clay: 23.9
Grass: 22.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.3

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 37.7
ELO Rating: 1145.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 116.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.2
Clay: 9.4
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (2-0) hard Toronto 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Washington 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Alex Michelsen
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) hard Toronto 116 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Evans (0-2) hard Washington 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (0-2) grass Mallorca 115 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) grass Mallorca 103 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
0
Alex Michelsen
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Lorenzo Musetti faces Alex Michelsen on hard courts. With Musetti ranked 7th and holding a 63.19% probability of winning, compared to Michelsen’s 36.81%, the predicted total number of games is set at 22.0, indicating a competitive match ahead.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti enters this match with a strong rank of 7 and an impressive Elo rating of 2581.27, showcasing his solid standing in the circuit. His form index of 48.11 suggests he is finding his rhythm, especially after a recent straight-sets victory over James Duckworth. While he has accumulated 82 minutes of fatigue during this tournament, his surface strength index of 13.58 indicates reliability on hard courts. Notably, Musetti's mean serve index of 96.92 gives him a slight edge over Michelsen, whose mean serve index is 95.95. Additionally, Musetti's mean return index of 88.29 provides a more substantial advantage over Michelsen's 88.75, although the difference is within a 5-point margin. On the other hand, Alex Michelsen, ranked 34th, has a lower form index of 37.72 and an Elo rating of 1145.51, reflecting a less consistent performance level. His recent matches show a mixed bag: after a win against Tomas Barrios Vera, he faced defeats against Daniel Evans and Miomir Kecmanovic, indicating potential vulnerabilities, particularly on grass. With 116 minutes of fatigue, Michelsen may feel the strain, especially after longer matches in previous rounds.

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti's higher ranking, better recent performance, and superior serve and return indices provide him with a discernible advantage going into this match. A critical factor to observe will be how effectively Musetti can capitalize on his serve to dictate play, which might be pivotal in securing his victory against Michelsen.