Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Cobolli comes mainly from overall strength and recent record at this level. Cobolli brings the higher ranking and ratings to the contest, with a rank of 6 versus Blockx at 32, and an Elo of 1926.82 compared with Blockx at 1821.14. That overall strength factor accounts for the largest swing toward Cobolli, and the recent record by level also favors him, reflecting his results in comparable tournaments. At the same time the model gives credits toward Blockx from recent form, serve and return game, and age. Blockx’s form index is solid at 63.74 and his mean serve index is marginally higher at 96.59 versus Cobolli’s 94.70, while his mean return index is 88.81 versus Cobolli’s 86.59. Neither serve nor return gaps exceed 5 points, so they are supportive but not decisive. Both players arrive with identical cumulative fatigue in the event, 348 minutes on court. Surface strength favors Cobolli more, with a surface strength index of 35.76 against Blockx at 21.27, which aligns with the model’s tilt. Recent results show consistency for both at Flushing Meadows. Blockx won his two US Open matches after a three-set loss to Cobolli in Cincinnati earlier this season. Cobolli also won his two opening rounds at the US Open, and his earlier loss in Cincinnati was a straight sets defeat to Arthur Fils. Those patterns explain the mixed influence of recent form and level on the projection.