Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #19
54%
VS

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #64
46%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Why the Model Favors Alexander Bublik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +3.2 Alexander Bublik
Surface fit +2.6 Alexander Bublik
Serve & return game +2.5 Fabian Marozsan
Recent form +1.7 Alexander Bublik
Fatigue & recent workload +0.7 Alexander Bublik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Alexander Bublik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #19 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #11 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #11 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #10 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-10-20

Fabian Marozsan

  • Current #64 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #54 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #50 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #47 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #49 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 44.1
ELO Rating: 1787.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1813.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.3
Clay: 29.3
Grass: 36.1
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 88.1

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 28.9
ELO Rating: 1594.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1671.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 125.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.5
Clay: 17.5
Grass: 15.4
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Fabian Marozsan
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Timofey Skatov (2-0) hard Almaty 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Zachary Svajda (0-2) hard Shanghai 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Kyrian Jacquet (0-2) hard Hangzhou 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Taro Daniel (2-1) hard Hangzhou 159 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Bolt (2-0) hard Hangzhou 84 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Fabian Marozsan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alexander Bublik is a narrow favorite, with a 54% chance of winning compared with Fabian Marozsan’s 46%. The match is projected to total 23.1 games.

Match Analysis

Bublik’s ranking and stronger hard-court record help explain his advantage. He has also won two of his last three hard-court matches, both in Shanghai, including a victory over Brandon Nakashima. Marozsan’s serve-and-return play is the main counterweight, keeping the forecast close despite Bublik’s broader advantage. Marozsan won his Almaty opener against Timofey Skatov, but has spent 125 minutes on court this tournament, while Bublik has yet to play there.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Bublik - Fabian Marozsan) +0.5 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bublik is projected to hit 11.6 aces and Marozsan 6.6. Bublik’s stronger serving profile supports that gap, though he is also expected to double-fault more often, at 3.5 to Marozsan’s 2.1.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.0 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Alexander Bublik 11.6 + Fabian Marozsan 6.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Alexander Bublik 3.4 + Fabian Marozsan 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 11.6 aces

Fabian Marozsan

Expected 6.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 3.4 double faults

Fabian Marozsan

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.7% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Bublik's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (33.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Marozsan can upset the narrow forecast if his serve-and-return game puts sustained pressure on Bublik. That is the clearest counter to Bublik’s stronger overall and hard-court profile.

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