Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
72%
VS

Jan-Lennard Struff

Rank: #79
28%
Expected Total Games: 40.3
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #10 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #10 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #11 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #62 2025-05-26

Jan-Lennard Struff

  • Current #79 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #80 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #84 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #144 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #87 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 26.5
ELO Rating: 1722.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1814.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.1
Clay: 33.3
Grass: 34.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 89.5

Jan-Lennard Struff

Form Index: 26.3
ELO Rating: 1508.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1514.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 19.3
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) clay Geneva 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-1) clay Geneva 115 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Edas Butvilas (2-0) clay Geneva 79 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) clay Rome 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) clay Rome 59 min

Jan-Lennard Struff
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) clay Hamburg 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) clay Rome 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) clay Rome 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) clay Madrid 57 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (2-0) clay Madrid 76 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — Round of 128 on clay at a Grand Slam sets a contrasting first-round test between Alexander Bublik and Jan-Lennard Struff. The model favors Alexander Bublik as the likely winner, projecting a 71.58% chance for Bublik to advance versus 28.42% for Struff, with an expected total of about 40.29 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Bublik arrives with the clearer credentials on paper: world No. 10, an Elo of 1722.7 and a surface strength index of 33.31, compared with Struff’s No. 79 ranking, Elo 1508.0 and a much lower clay index of 12.77. Both players show similar short-term form (Bublik 26.52, Struff 26.25) and neither carries tournament fatigue into this meeting. Bublik’s mean serve (96.24) and return (89.50) indices are marginally higher than Struff’s serve (94.93) and return (86.43), suggesting Bublik has a small edge on both wings without a large gulf in serving power. Recent results underline that Bublik has been more consistent on clay in recent weeks: two wins out of his last three matches in Geneva before a three-set loss in his most recent outing. Struff has struggled to string results together on clay, winning just one of his last three matches (a straight-sets win in Rome) and following with back-to-back losses in Hamburg and Rome qualifiers. Those trends, combined with the ratings gap, point to Bublik controlling the match tempo more often than not.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.3 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Bublik - Jan-Lennard Struff) +2.8 Most likely spread: +2 (Alexander Bublik wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at roughly 22.79 for the match while the expected double faults total is 9.48. Clay’s slower surface typically reduces ace counts and can increase unforced serving errors as rallies lengthen, so the predicted aces reflect that slowdown. Bublik’s slightly higher serve index could nudge the predicted aces upward for him, but the margin over Struff is small and unlikely to produce a dramatic serve-only outcome.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 22.8 Most likely: 22 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 9.5 Most likely: 9 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

56.8% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Bublik's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (35.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s superior ranking, Elo and better clay standing give him the clear edge, reinforced by stronger serve and return metrics. Key factor to watch: whether Bublik can translate his serve and return efficiency into early breaks on clay, which is likely to decide how quickly the match is sealed.

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