Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #19
40%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #25
60%
Expected Total Games: 25.2
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Why the Model Favors Karen Khachanov

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +4.3 Karen Khachanov
Serve & return game +3.4 Karen Khachanov
Surface fit +2.0 Karen Khachanov
Head-to-head +1.6 Karen Khachanov
Fatigue & recent workload +1.6 Alexander Bublik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Karen Khachanov. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #19 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #11 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #11 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #10 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-10-20

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #25 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #26 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #16 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #18 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 44.2
ELO Rating: 1788.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1813.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.2
Clay: 29.3
Grass: 36.1
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 88.1

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 1873.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1777.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 226.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.8
Clay: 26.2
Grass: 30.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Karen Khachanov
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Karen Khachanov is favored in this Almaty quarterfinal, 60% to Alexander Bublik’s 40%. The projection is for 25.2 games, suggesting a close contest.

Match Analysis

Khachanov has the stronger recent case: he beat Tomas Machac in Almaty after a straight-sets win over Rei Sakamoto. Bublik also had two hard-court wins in Shanghai, but his run ended against Alexander Zverev. Their serve-and-return profiles are closely matched, with a slight overall lean to Khachanov, who also has a small hard-court advantage. Their head-to-head history tilts slightly his way too. Bublik’s freshness is a counterweight: he has logged no court time at this event, compared with 226 minutes for Khachanov.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Bublik - Karen Khachanov) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Karen Khachanov wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bublik is projected for 12.3 aces and 3.7 double faults, while Khachanov is projected for 8.8 aces and 2.3 double faults. Bublik’s slight serve advantage supports the higher ace estimate, though both players have the serve strength to make points difficult to return on hard courts.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.9 Most likely: 18 aces Per player: Alexander Bublik 12.2 + Karen Khachanov 8.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Alexander Bublik 3.7 + Karen Khachanov 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 12.2 aces

Karen Khachanov

Expected 8.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 3.7 double faults

Karen Khachanov

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

52.7% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Bublik's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (37.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s serve is the main threat to the forecast. If he turns that edge into a steady stream of aces, Khachanov’s advantage in recent results and court fit may not be enough.

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