Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #24
42%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #14
58%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #24 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #62 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #51 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #34 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #27 2024-08-26

Tommy Paul

  • Current #14 2025-08-18
  • 3 mo ago #12 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #10 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #12 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #14 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 78.0
ELO Rating: 1728.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1740.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.7
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.5

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 64.5
ELO Rating: 2383.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1783.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.4
Clay: 24.2
Grass: 24.2
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (1-2) hard Cincinnati 159 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (2-0) hard Cincinnati 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Ofner (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Johannus Monday (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
2
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the 2025 US Open, Alexander Bublik will face Tommy Paul on hard courts in New York. The match is expected to be competitive, with Paul being the predicted winner, holding a 57.66% chance of victory compared to Bublik's 42.34%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 37.0.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul, currently ranked 14th, boasts a solid Elo rating of 2383.22 and a more favorable surface strength index of 17.36 compared to Bublik's 9.66. This indicates Paul's superior performance on hard courts, which will be crucial in this matchup. Although both players have the same cumulative fatigue of 174 minutes from the tournament, Paul's recent form index of 64.49 is slightly lower than Bublik's 77.99, illustrating that Bublik has shown stronger overall performance recently. In terms of serve and return capabilities, the mean serve index of Bublik stands at 97.00, while Paul’s is 95.12, creating a marginal advantage for Bublik in serving. However, Paul's mean return index of 87.93 surpasses Bublik's 86.52 by more than 5 points, suggesting that Paul may capitalize on Bublik's service games more effectively during this match. Over their last three matches, Bublik has emerged victorious in all, demonstrating a strong winning streak, whereas Paul has experienced mixed results with a recent loss in Cincinnati.

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul’s edge in return strength and his superior rank and Elo rating position him as the favorite for this match. A key factor to watch will be how well Bublik can protect his serve against Paul’s effective return game, which could significantly influence the outcome.

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