Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
71%
VS

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #28
29%
Expected Total Games: 36.8
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 95.4
ELO Rating: 5105.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2263.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.9
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 39.1
Serve Rating: 76.0
Return Rating: 63.8

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 82.6
ELO Rating: 1406.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.3
Clay: 38.9
Grass: 37.4
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.4

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev

  • Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-1) hard Paris 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (2-1) hard Paris 150 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Paris 96 min

Cameron Norrie

  • Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1-2) hard Auckland 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Hugo Gaston (2-0) hard Auckland 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) hard Brisbane 148 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Zverev
vs
0
Cameron Norrie
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alexander Zverev and Cameron Norrie at the Australian Open marks a crucial Round of 32 encounter on hard courts. Zverev, ranked 3rd, is favored to win with a probability of 71.35%, while Norrie, currently 28th, stands at 28.65%. The expected total number of games played in this match is approximately 36.82.

Match Analysis

Alexander Zverev boasts a solid form index of 95.41, significantly higher than Cameron Norrie's 82.60. Zverev's Elo rating of 5105 indicates his strong competitive standing, while Norrie's rating of 1406 suggests a considerable gap in their recent performances. Both players share equal fatigue levels of 348 minutes, but Zverev's surface strength index of 35.93 slightly edges out Norrie's 37.28, showcasing their ability to adapt to hard courts effectively. Notably, Zverev's mean serve index of 75.96 is lower than Norrie's impressive 97.68, indicating that Norrie's serve may pose a challenge, although the differential is less than 5 points. Conversely, Zverev's mean return index of 63.81 is somewhat lower than Norrie's 94.40, highlighting Norrie's superior return capabilities. In their last three matches, Zverev has shown resilience, winning two out of three matches, including a recent victory over Alexandre Muller in the Australian Open. However, he suffered a loss against Jannik Sinner in Paris, indicating some inconsistency. Similarly, Norrie has also won two of his last three matches, most recently defeating Emilio Nava, which demonstrates his capability to compete effectively in the tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.8 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match stands at 10.06, with anticipated double faults at 5.63. Given the hard court surface, which balances the advantages for both powerful servers and skilled returners, these figures suggest a moderately competitive serving environment. Zverev's slightly lower mean serve index compared to Norrie may influence the ace count, but both players are likely to capitalize on their serving strengths throughout the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Zverev's higher rank, form index, and recent performance provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this matchup. A key factor to monitor will be how effectively Norrie can leverage his serving strength against Zverev's returning game, as the outcome could hinge on these critical exchanges.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel