Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Quarterfinals

Alexander Zverev vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
67%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #27
33%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 5105.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2264.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.9
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 39.1
Serve Rating: 75.2
Return Rating: 64.2

Learner Tien

Form Index: 97.5
ELO Rating: 1647.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1571.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.6
Clay: 33.2
Grass: 34.6
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 94.6

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev

  • Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-1) hard Paris 62 min

Learner Tien

  • Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) hard Brisbane 75 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexander Zverev
vs
1
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinal match between Alexander Zverev and Learner Tien at the 2026 Australian Open promises to be an exciting encounter on hard courts. Zverev, currently ranked 3rd, goes into the match as the favorite, with a win probability of 67.44%, while Tien, ranked 27th, has a 32.56% chance of victory. The expected total number of games played is approximately 37.03.

Match Analysis

Alexander Zverev boasts a solid form index of 100.0 and an impressive Elo rating of 5105, while Learner Tien, with a form index of 97.48 and an Elo rating of 1647, shows strong potential but trails significantly in both categories. Zverev's cumulative fatigue is at 696 minutes, which matches Tien's fatigue level. However, Zverev's surface strength index of 35.93 indicates his ability to perform well on hard courts, while Tien's higher surface strength index of 49.57 suggests he can also be effective on this surface. A notable difference lies in the mean serve index, where Zverev's rating of 75.23 is significantly lower than Tien's 96.88, indicating Tien's superior serving capability. Conversely, Zverev has a mean return index of 64.16 compared to Tien's 94.61, highlighting his defensive strengths on return games. In their recent performances, both players have been in fine form, winning all their last three matches convincingly. Zverev has dominated his opponents, winning all sets in his most recent match against Francisco Cerundolo, while Tien has also been impressive, not losing a single set in his last match against Daniil Medvedev. This sets the stage for a compelling contest, with both players displaying confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.0 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 10.57 aces and 4.47 double faults. On hard courts, which promote a balanced environment for serve statistics, we can anticipate a moderate number of aces due to the effectiveness of both players' serves. Given Tien's notably higher mean serve index, he may have an advantage in the aces prediction, potentially leading to a higher count of aces compared to Zverev.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Zverev is favored to win primarily due to his higher overall ranking and solid recent performances, despite Tien's excellent serving and return capabilities. A key factor to monitor will be the effectiveness of Tien's serve against Zverev's return game, as this will significantly influence the match's outcome.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel