Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Alexei Popyrin vs Holger Rune Prediction

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #24
41%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #9
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Holger Rune

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #24 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-01-27
  • 9 mo ago #24 2024-10-28
  • 12 mo ago #63 2024-07-29

Holger Rune

  • Current #9 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #9 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-01-27
  • 9 mo ago #13 2024-10-28
  • 12 mo ago #17 2024-07-29

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 42.9
ELO Rating: 1373.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1622.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 244.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.2
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 86.7

Holger Rune

Form Index: 51.6
ELO Rating: 2247.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1833.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 141.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.3
Clay: 20.6
Grass: 21.9
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 84.8

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-1) hard Toronto 150 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Arseneault (2-0) hard Toronto 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Washington 157 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (1-2) grass London 133 min

Holger Rune
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Holger Rune
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Alexei Popyrin faces off against Holger Rune on hard court. The predicted winner is Holger Rune, with a probability of winning at 59.22% compared to Popyrin's 40.78%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 23 games.

Match Analysis

Holger Rune, currently ranked 9th, holds a significant edge with a higher Elo rating of 2247.13 compared to Popyrin's 1373.93. Rune's form index is also superior at 51.63 against Popyrin's 42.85, indicating a stronger recent performance. Furthermore, Rune's cumulative fatigue of 141 minutes is notably less than Popyrin's 244 minutes, suggesting that Popyrin may contend with tiredness as the match progresses. Rune's surface strength index of 18.25 also indicates a strong adaptability to hard courts compared to Popyrin's 14.23. In their recent matches, both players have shown promising performances, but Rune has been particularly dominant. He won his last two matches in straight sets with limited time on the court, defeating Alexandre Muller and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, showcasing his efficiency. In contrast, Popyrin has faced tougher battles, including a hard-fought victory over Daniil Medvedev, which lasted 150 minutes. These varying levels of exertion may impact their physical readiness for this encounter.

Final Prediction

Holger Rune's superior ranking, lower fatigue levels, and recent match efficiency give him a distinct advantage heading into this matchup. A key factor to observe will be how Popyrin's stamina holds up against Rune's sustained pressure, especially if the match extends into longer rallies.

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