Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #60
28%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #28
72%
Expected Total Games: 28.6
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #60 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #53 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-05-05

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #28 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #19 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 26.3
ELO Rating: 1554.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1568.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 89.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 23.9
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 89.6

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 41.2
ELO Rating: 1837.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1899.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.6
Clay: 27.9
Grass: 21.5
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Jakub Mensik
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
1
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000, Round of 64 on clay, Jakub Mensik enters as the clear favorite against Alexei Popyrin. The model projects Mensik to win with a 71.77% probability to Popyrin’s 28.23%, and predicts a relatively short match of about 28.62 total games.

Match Analysis

Mensik arrives at rank 28 with an Elo of 1837.08 and a form index of 41.24, while Popyrin is ranked 60 with an Elo of 1554.74 and a form index of 26.26. The contrast in Elo and rankings favors Mensik decisively; he also shows a marginally stronger surface strength index (27.93 vs 23.92). Fatigue is a notable factor: Popyrin has already logged 89 minutes on court in Rome, whereas Mensik shows zero cumulative minutes this week, suggesting fresher legs for the Czech. Both players have strong serving profiles by the indices provided (mean serve: Popyrin 96.43, Mensik 95.29) and solid returns (Popyrin 89.55, Mensik 85.67), so service games will matter. Over their last three matches Popyrin beat Matteo Berrettini in Rome but lost earlier to Martin Damm and Casper Ruud on clay. Mensik’s recent run included wins over Martin Damm and Karen Khachanov in Madrid before falling to Alexander Zverev in a three-set encounter; those results give Mensik momentum against high-quality opponents.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.6 Most likely outcome: 29 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexei Popyrin - Jakub Mensik) -1.9 Most likely spread: -2 (Jakub Mensik wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 15.26 for the match and the double faults prediction at 5.26. On clay, the predicted aces are tempered by slower conditions that reduce outright service winners, while the expected double faults reflect both pressure situations and potential fatigue — especially relevant given Popyrin’s minutes on court. Neither player holds a substantially superior serve rating, so the predicted aces largely reflect surface effects rather than a dominant big-server performance.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.8% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexei Popyrin's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (48.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s higher Elo, better recent form and fresher legs are the primary reasons he’s favored here. The key factor to watch will be whether Popyrin’s return game and accumulated court time can disrupt Mensik’s rhythm early, creating break opportunities that could flip the short-match projection.

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