Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Alexei Popyrin vs Sebastian Korda Prediction

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #40
50%
VS

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #63
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alexei Popyrin

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #40 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #24 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #25 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #24 2024-10-14

Sebastian Korda

  • Current #63 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #32 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #24 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #22 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 27.0
ELO Rating: 1455.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1631.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.6
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 12.9
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 86.6

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 38.5
ELO Rating: 1484.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1661.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.8
Clay: 15.2
Grass: 18.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Sebastian Korda
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (0-2) hard Shanghai 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) hard Tokio 138 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sho Shimabukuro (2-0) hard Tokio 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Tokio 149 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Hangzhou 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Sebastian Korda
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Stockholm tournament, Alexei Popyrin faces off against Sebastian Korda on hard courts. With both players showcasing competitive skills, the prediction slightly favors Popyrin, who has a 50.34% probability of winning compared to Korda’s 49.66%. The anticipated total number of games played in this closely-contested match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Alexei Popyrin, currently ranked 40, holds a form index of 26.99 and an Elo rating of 1455.67. His surface strength index stands at 14.59, indicating a solid performance on hard courts. Notably, Popyrin possesses a mean serve index of 97.73, which is significantly higher than Korda's 95.51, suggesting he has an edge in serving capabilities. In contrast, Korda, ranked 63rd, has a higher form index of 38.46 and an Elo rating of 1484.22, reflecting a more consistent recent performance. Their mean return indices are relatively close, with Popyrin at 86.55 and Korda at 85.34, indicating that both players can effectively return serves. Over their last three matches, Popyrin has faced tough opponents, losing to Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev while securing a win against Martin Landaluce. Korda's recent form has been similarly challenging, with losses to Zizou Bergs and Taylor Fritz, although he managed a victory against Sho Shimabukuro. Both players enter this match with zero cumulative fatigue from the current tournament, which may contribute to a high-energy contest.

Final Prediction

Popyrin’s slight advantage in serving strength, combined with his higher rank and solid performance on hard courts, gives him the edge heading into this match. A crucial factor to monitor will be how effectively each player can capitalize on their service games, as this could dictate the overall flow and outcome of the match.

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