Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Rublev is driven most strongly by surface fit (adding 7.0 percentage points) alongside recent form and overall strength; Rublev’s higher surface strength index (35.7 vs Pellegrino’s 26.7) and superior ranking (No. 16 to No. 133) underpin that advantage on slow clay. Rublev also carries a higher Elo (1744.9 vs 1687.2), which contributes to the model’s assessment of his greater match-up consistency at higher levels. That said, Serve & return game is a clear factor in Pellegrino’s favor (+6.4 points) — she’s shown solid serving numbers (mean serve index 94.7) and has been steady in this tournament. Rublev’s mean serve index is slightly higher (96.8) but not by a margin greater than 5 points; by contrast his mean return index (94.1) is meaningfully better than Pellegrino’s (88.5) by more than five points, a differential that matters on clay where returners get more time. Fatigue is also relevant: Rublev enters with 0 minutes accumulated at this event, while Pellegrino has 82 minutes on court already, which can amplify the physical toll of longer rallies on clay. Recent form slices both ways: Pellegrino arrives with a 2–1 run in her last three, including a straight-sets Bastad win, and a solid form index (57.6). Rublev’s form index is lower (35.6) and his three most recent results show tough losses, but the model still leans to Rublev based on surface fit, higher level results, and Elo.