Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Fabian Marozsan vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #46
41%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #15
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Ranking Trends

Fabian Marozsan

  • Current Rank: #46 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #51 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #53 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #56 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #57 (2025-02-17)

Andrey Rublev

  • Current Rank: #15 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #16 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #15 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #17 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #10 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 64.0
ELO Rating: 1188.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 57.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 76.2
Return Rating: 48.7

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 68.2
ELO Rating: 2400.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1848.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 78.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.5
Clay: 20.3
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 90.5

Recent Matches

Fabian Marozsan
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Doha 57 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (1-2) hard Auckland 127 min

Andrey Rublev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper De Jong (2-0) hard Doha 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 163 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Fabian Marozsan
vs
1
Andrey Rublev
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Doha, Qatar — Round of 16 on hard courts at an ATP 500 event sees Fabian Marozsan face Andrey Rublev. The model favors Rublev to win (59.25%) over Marozsan (40.75%), with a predicted total of about 23.76 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rublev enters this matchup as the higher-ranked player (No. 15) with a substantially stronger Elo (2400.82) compared with Marozsan (Rank 46; Elo 1188.24). Form indices show Rublev slightly ahead (68.17 vs 64.02). Fatigue is higher for Rublev (78 minutes on court so far) than Marozsan (57 minutes), which could matter over extended rallies. Surface strength indices are modest for both (Rublev 14.52, Marozsan 8.37), reflecting neither player being a clear specialist on hard courts here. Serve and return metrics point clearly toward Rublev: his mean serve index (97.72) is more than 20 points higher than Marozsan’s (76.23), and his mean return index (90.47) trounces Marozsan’s (48.67). Both differences exceed 5 points and suggest Rublev’s baseline and service weapons will be decisive. Over their last three matches, Marozsan has shown resilience — beating Humbert in Doha and earlier wins at the Australian Open, with a five-set loss to Medvedev in between. Rublev has mixed recent results as well: a straight-sets Doha win over Jesper De Jong, a heavy loss to Cerundolo in Melbourne, and a prior victory versus Jaime Faria.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is 15.35 total, while the double faults prediction is about 3.91. Hard courts tend to balance serve reward and return opportunities; the predicted aces reflect that medium-fast surface. Given Rublev’s significantly higher serve rating, expect his share of the predicted aces to be larger, which could push the overall ace count upward.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s superior serve and return metrics give him the edge in this matchup despite greater accumulated minutes. A key factor to watch is how effectively Rublev’s serve converts free points and limits Marozsan’s chances on return.

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