Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Jesper de Jong vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #86
24%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #15
76%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Player Metrics

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 10.2
ELO Rating: 737.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 7.3
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 71.2
Return Rating: 54.0

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 60.5
ELO Rating: 2400.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1847.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.5
Clay: 20.3
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 90.4

Recent Matches

Jesper de Jong

  • Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Rotterdam 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (1-2) hard Adelaide 124 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (0-2) hard Hong Kong 105 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) hard Paris 88 min

Andrey Rublev

  • Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jaime Faria (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 163 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (2-0) hard Hong Kong 73 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Jesper de Jong
vs
1
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 500-level event in Doha, Qatar, Jesper de Jong faces Andrey Rublev in the round of 32 on hard court. The model predicts Andrey Rublev to win (76.10%) while Jesper de Jong has a 23.90% chance, with an expected total of about 23.85 games in the match.

Match Analysis

De Jong (rank 86) arrives with a low form index (10.22) and an Elo of 737.89; his surface strength index is modest (5.52) and fatigue is minimal. Rublev (rank 15) shows markedly stronger metrics: a form index of 60.48 and a much higher Elo (2400.82), with a surface strength index of 14.52 and no accumulated fatigue. The difference in mean serve index is large (Rublev 97.77 vs de Jong 71.18), and the mean return index gap is also substantial (Rublev 90.41 vs de Jong 53.99), both exceeding the 5-point threshold—this clearly favors Rublev on both serve and return dynamics. Looking at recent results, de Jong has three straight losses in his last three hard-court matches (Adelaide, Australian Open, Rotterdam), managing only a set in two of those matches and enduring long match durations. Rublev’s recent form is stronger overall: two wins followed by a loss at the Australian Open; his recent matches include straight-set and four-set victories before a tougher result, indicating continued high-level performance despite a recent defeat.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 16.46 total aces and an expected double faults figure of 5.44. On Doha’s medium-paced hard court, the predicted aces reflect a balanced surface where big serving is rewarded but not as much as on faster courts—this aligns with the predicted aces. Given Rublev’s substantially higher serve rating, the predicted aces distribution will likely skew toward him, and the double faults prediction suggests both players will keep errors moderate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Rublev’s superior rank, Elo, form and large advantages in serve and return indices give him the clear edge. The key factor to watch is Rublev’s serve and how effectively de Jong can neutralize it with returns early in rallies.

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