Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mariano Navone

Rank: #44
43%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #15
57%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

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Ranking Trends

Mariano Navone

  • Current #44 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #74 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #84 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #75 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #70 2025-04-14

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #15 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #15 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #10 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #8 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 56.6
ELO Rating: 1630.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1688.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.7
Clay: 43.6
Grass: 40.8
Serve Rating: 67.5
Return Rating: 80.8

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 38.0
ELO Rating: 1706.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1785.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.5
Clay: 43.8
Grass: 46.9
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 90.5

Recent Matches

Mariano Navone
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Merida (2-1) clay Bucharest 137 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) clay Bucharest 211 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Molcan (2-1) clay Bucharest 138 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Elmer Moller (2-0) clay Bucharest 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) clay Bucharest 120 min

Andrey Rublev
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mariano Navone
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Barcelona on clay in the round of 32 of this 500-level event, Andrey Rublev is narrowly favoured to progress against Mariano Navone. The model gives Rublev a 57.29% chance to win versus 42.71% for Navone, with an expected total of about 22.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rublev arrives as the higher-ranked player (15) with the superior Elo (1706.9) while Navone sits at 44 with an Elo around 1630.9. Navone’s form index (56.6) is markedly better than Rublev’s (38.0) coming into this clash, and both enter without tournament fatigue. Surface strength is essentially level on clay (Navone 43.6, Rublev 43.8), so neither has a major clay-court edge on paper. Serve and return profiles create the key contrasts. Rublev’s mean serve index (98.0) is far stronger than Navone’s (67.5), a gap of roughly 30 points that should favour Rublev on hold opportunities despite the slow surface. Rublev also posts a higher mean return index (90.5) versus Navone’s 80.8, another notable difference. Navone’s recent stretch is impressive — three consecutive wins in Bucharest on clay, all matches showing staying power and long durations — while Rublev’s last three results are mixed (one clear win and two losses), suggesting inconsistency in recent form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mariano Navone - Andrey Rublev) +4.6 Most likely spread: +5 (Mariano Navone wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is moderate with a predicted aces total near 8.65; clay typically suppresses serve speeds so this projected figure reflects the surface effect. The expected double faults count sits at about 4.54, and the expected double faults number can rise on long clay rallies and physical matches. Rublev’s much higher serve rating should lift the predicted aces tally relative to Navone, but clay will blunt some of that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.7 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s higher ranking, superior Elo and especially his dominant serve profile give him the slight edge in Barcelona, even as Navone’s current form and return ability make an upset a realistic outcome. Watch Rublev’s serve effectiveness early — if he earns free points, the match will likely stay short; if Navone breaks rhythm and extends rallies, the upset route opens.

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