Paris Paris Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Andrey Rublev vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Prediction

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #22
62%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #31
38%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Why the Model Favors Andrey Rublev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +4.9 Andrey Rublev
Surface fit +4.8 Andrey Rublev
Serve & return game +3.8 Andrey Rublev
Overall strength +3.0 Andrey Rublev
Overall record & opposition quality +2.6 Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 62% for Andrey Rublev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #22 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #16 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #14 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-11-03

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #31 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #30 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #54 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 29.7
ELO Rating: 1702.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1794.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.9
Clay: 37.3
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 89.3

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 25.1
ELO Rating: 1587.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1677.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.6
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) hard Vienna 90 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (1-2) hard Almaty 135 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rei Sakamoto (0-2) hard Shanghai 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) hard Beijing 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Safiullin (2-1) hard Beijing 120 min

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrey Rublev
vs
1
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Andrey Rublev is favoured over Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Paris Round of 64, with win probabilities of 62% and 38%, respectively. The match is projected to last 26.9 games.

Match Analysis

Rublev’s stronger hard-court profile is a major point in his favour, alongside a slight serving advantage and a clearer edge on return. Ranked 22nd to Etcheverry’s 31st, he also has the stronger overall profile and recent record at this level. Etcheverry’s overall record against better opposition provides a counterweight, so the forecast is not one-sided. But Rublev’s combination of serve and return strength gives him more ways to put pressure on Etcheverry across the match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Andrey Rublev - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) +0.5 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Rublev is projected to hit 8.5 aces, compared with 7.0 for Etcheverry, a modest gap that reflects Rublev’s slight serving advantage. The estimates are 2.6 double faults for Rublev and 2.0 for Etcheverry, suggesting a similar error burden for both.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.8 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Andrey Rublev 8.5 + Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Andrey Rublev 2.6 + Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Andrey Rublev

Expected 8.5 aces

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 7.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Andrey Rublev

Expected 2.6 double faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.7% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Andrey Rublev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s record against stronger opposition is the clearest counterweight to Rublev’s hard-court and serve-return advantages. If that quality of opposition experience carries over, he has a route to overturning the forecast.

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