Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Arthur Fery vs Flavio Cobolli: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Fery

Rank: #185
39%
VS

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #22
61%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Flavio Cobolli

Player Metrics

Arthur Fery

Form Index: 80.5
ELO Rating: 392.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1514.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.6
Clay: 1.8
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 40.0
Return Rating: 50.0

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 23.4
ELO Rating: 1955.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1651.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.6
Clay: 41.6
Grass: 40.1
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 94.0

Recent Matches

Arthur Fery

  • Last Match: vs Bernard Tomic (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (0-2) hard Stockholm 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jay Clarke (2-1) hard Stockholm 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ignacio Buse (2-0) hard Stockholm 67 min

Flavio Cobolli

  • Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (1-2) hard Metz 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Paris 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Paris 54 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) hard Vienna 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-0) hard Vienna 99 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Fery
vs
0
Flavio Cobolli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Arthur Fery and Flavio Cobolli at the 2026 Australian Open marks an intriguing contest in the Round of 128 on hard courts. With Cobolli holding a significant edge, he is predicted to win with a probability of 61.11% compared to Fery’s 38.89%. The expected total games in this match are approximately 36.99, suggesting a competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Arthur Fery, currently ranked 185, boasts a solid form index of 80.47, indicating a recent uptick in performance. His Elo rating stands at 392.15, but he is battling fatigue with 348 minutes accumulated in the tournament. His surface strength index of 1.62 and mean serve index of 40.01 suggest that while he is competent on hard courts, he may struggle against a stronger opponent. Conversely, Flavio Cobolli is ranked 22 and has a robust Elo rating of 1955. His form index is lower at 23.42, but he has no accumulated fatigue thus far. Cobolli’s mean serve index (96.67) and return index (94.05) significantly exceed Fery’s, indicating a marked advantage in both serving and returning capabilities. In their recent performances, Fery has won his last two matches at the Australian Open, both against Bernard Tomic and Dino Prizmic, without dropping a set. However, his performance at the Stockholm tournament saw him lose in straight sets to Lorenzo Sonego. Cobolli, on the other hand, has faced challenges recently, losing two out of his last three matches, including his most recent encounter against Lorenzo Sonego at Metz, where he won only one set.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.0 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 14.61 aces, with approximately 3.7 expected double faults. Given the hard surface, where serve statistics are balanced, both players are likely to capitalize on their serving opportunities. Cobolli's significantly higher mean serve index suggests he may lead in the aces prediction, potentially increasing the overall ace count for the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.6 Most likely: 14 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.7 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Flavio Cobolli is favored to win due to his superior serving and returning statistics, combined with Fery's fatigue and lower performance metrics. A key factor to monitor will be Cobolli’s ability to dominate on serve, which could dictate the match's pace and momentum.

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