Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Arthur Fils vs Kamil Majchrzak: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Fils

Rank: #42
49%
VS

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #55
51%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Kamil Majchrzak

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Ranking Trends

Arthur Fils

  • Current #42 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #40 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #20 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-02-17

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Current #55 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #64 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #78 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #88 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #116 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 36.4
ELO Rating: 1214.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1732.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 70.0
Return Rating: 58.4

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 39.6
ELO Rating: 880.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 9.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 91.1

Recent Matches

Arthur Fils
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Montpellier 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Blanchet (2-0) hard Montpellier 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Montpellier 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) hard Toronto 112 min

Kamil Majchrzak
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Fils
vs
0
Kamil Majchrzak
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Doha (hard court, ATP 500 level) pits Arthur Fils against Kamil Majchrzak. The model forecasts a narrow edge for Majchrzak: 51.24% win probability versus 48.76% for Fils, with an expected total of about 23.95 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fils arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 42) with a substantially higher Elo (1214.76) than Majchrzak (rank 55, Elo 880.36). Fils posts a form index of 36.43 and a surface strength index of 12.02; Majchrzak’s form index is 39.62 with a surface strength of 8.21. Neither player shows tournament fatigue (both 0 minutes on court). The mean serve index gap is large — Majchrzak 96.77 vs Fils 69.99 (difference >5) — and his mean return index is also markedly higher (91.14 vs 58.42), which are both significant factors to note going into a medium-paced hard-court setting. Recent results for Fils show one win and two defeats: a win over Ugo Blanchet in Montpellier, followed by straight-set losses to Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur in indoor hard events. Majchrzak’s last three include a five-set win over Jacob Fearnley at the Australian Open and two straight-set losses — a long first-round defeat to Fabian Marozsan and a three-set loss to Daniil Medvedev in Brisbane. Both players have been through heavy and lengthy matches recently, but fatigue numbers here are listed as zero for this tournament context.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Fils - Kamil Majchrzak) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Kamil Majchrzak wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 10.57 total (predicted aces), and the expected double faults are 4.47 (double faults prediction). On hard courts, which favor both servers and returners with a consistent bounce, Majchrzak’s much higher serve rating suggests he will drive a higher share of the ace count. Given his elite serve and return indexes, the match should produce a moderate number of aces while keeping expected double faults relatively low.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Majchrzak’s edge in the projection appears driven by substantially superior serve and return indices despite Fils’ higher rank and Elo. A key factor to watch is how Majchrzak’s serving pressure translates into free points (aces) and whether Fils can capitalize on return opportunities to offset that advantage.

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