Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Marton Fucsovics vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #55
40%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #34
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Ranking Trends

Marton Fucsovics

  • Current Rank: #55 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #55 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #63 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #124 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #89 (2025-03-03)

Arthur Fils

  • Current Rank: #34 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #40 (2025-12-01)
  • 6 Months Ago: #20 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #14 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #21 (2025-03-03)

Player Metrics

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 46.5
ELO Rating: 995.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1568.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 178.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 8.0
Serve Rating: 66.9
Return Rating: 67.6

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 65.7
ELO Rating: 1436.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1743.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 65.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.5
Clay: 12.6
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Marton Fucsovics
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) hard Indian Wells 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Christopher O'Connell (2-0) hard Indian Wells 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Doha 121 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hady Habib (2-0) hard Doha 70 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Guy Den Ouden (0-2) hard Rotterdam 111 min

Arthur Fils
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Dino Prizmic (2-0) hard Indian Wells 65 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Doha 50 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (2-0) hard Doha 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Doha 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Doha 89 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marton Fucsovics
vs
0
Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells, in the Round of 32 on the hard courts of California, Arthur Fils is narrowly favored over Marton Fucsovics in this Masters 1000 clash. The model projects Fils to win with a 60.33% probability versus 39.67% for Fucsovics, and anticipates a relatively short match of about 23.36 total games.

Match Analysis

Fucsovics arrives as world No. 55 with a modest form index (46.47) and an Elo of 995.7. He has been busy at this event — 178 minutes on court — which suggests accumulated fatigue that could affect late-match legs. His surface strength index on hard is low (6.85), though his mean serve (66.89) and mean return (67.63) are balanced, underlining a baseline, all-court profile rather than an overpowering weapon. Fils, ranked 34, carries a stronger recent form (65.69) and a much higher Elo (1,436.2). He’s relatively fresh with only 65 minutes played so far and a higher surface strength index (13.48). The gap in mean serve index is notable — Fils’s 97.25 versus Fucsovics’s 66.89 — a difference of over 30 points; his mean return index is also substantially superior (89.42 vs 67.63). Over their last three matches, Fucsovics has won two straight in Indian Wells, beating Musetti and O’Connell in two-set matches after a three-set loss to Khachanov in Doha. Fils has also been selective: wins over Prizmic and Mensik bookend a straight-sets loss to Alcaraz in Doha, generally showing sharper form and cleaner energy management this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match sits at a predicted aces total of about 16.86, with an expected double faults tally of 5.74. Hard courts typically produce a moderate number of aces — more than clay, fewer than grass — and Fils’s far superior serve rating should drive a large share of the ace count. Given Fils’s power, the double faults prediction remains modest, but his aggressive serving style could slightly inflate unforced second-serve errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fils’s combination of higher Elo, superior serve and return metrics, and fresher legs give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch is whether Fucsovics can neutralize Fils’s serve with early returns; if he can’t, Fils’s serve dominance should decide the match.

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