Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Semifinals

Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #55
40%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #30
60%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #55 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #150 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #283 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Arthur Fils

  • Current #30 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #42 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #31 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 93.2
ELO Rating: 1812.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1868.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 228.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.5
Clay: 42.8
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 61.2
Return Rating: 61.6

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 83.0
ELO Rating: 1851.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1933.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 292.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.6
Clay: 46.5
Grass: 42.0
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Arthur Fils
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Arthur Fils
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Barcelona semifinal on clay pits Rafael Jodar against Arthur Fils in an important ATP 500-level clay tune-up in Spain. The model favors Arthur Fils (59.78%) over Rafael Jodar (40.22%), with a projected 23.5 total games in the match — a scoreline likely to be decided in two competitive sets or a tight three.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is a contrast of profiles. Jodar (rank 55) arrives with a strong recent form index (93.23) and an Elo of 1812.9; he’s played 228 minutes in the event and posts a surface strength index of 42.8. Fils (rank 30) carries the higher Elo (1851.6) and a solid surface index (46.5) but shows greater cumulative fatigue (292 minutes). Jodar’s consistency and fresher legs are notable against Fils’ higher standing and experience this season. The serving and returning numbers are a decisive feature: Fils’ mean serve index (97.82) dwarfs Jodar’s (61.17) by more than 35 points, and his mean return index (89.45) also comfortably exceeds Jodar’s (61.56). Those gaps suggest Fils can impose pace on serve and press return opportunities, particularly on key points. Both players have been in form here — Jodar has won his three matches in straight sets (Norrie, Ugo Carabelli, Munar) with relatively short matches, while Fils also progressed strongly, two straight-set wins (Musetti, Nakashima) and one longer three-seter (Atmane), indicating both are battle-tested this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rafael Jodar - Arthur Fils) -2.3 Most likely spread: -3 (Arthur Fils wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at a modest 8.46 total; the predicted aces reflect clay’s tendency to cut winners off the serve. The expected double faults are 4.59 — a double faults prediction that aligns with extended rallies and mounting fatigue over the tournament. Given Fils’ significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces are likely to come more from him, while both players could produce some of the expected double faults as the match wears on.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.5 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fils’ clear advantage in serve and return metrics gives him the edge in this matchup despite heavier minutes on court; the model therefore leans toward him. Watch Fils’ serve efficiency and whether Jodar can convert his fresher legs and steadier recent form into breaking opportunities — that will decide the balance.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel