Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Arthur Fils vs Terence Atmane: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Arthur Fils

Rank: #30
65%
VS

Terence Atmane

Rank: #41
35%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

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Player Metrics

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 53.9
ELO Rating: 1801.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1890.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 62.7
Clay: 45.2
Grass: 42.0
Serve Rating: 74.3
Return Rating: 64.1

Terence Atmane

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 1622.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.0
Clay: 39.0
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 92.0

Recent Matches

Arthur Fils

Terence Atmane

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Fils
vs
0
Terence Atmane
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Barcelona, Spain — round of 32 on clay at an ATP 500 event. The model projects Arthur Fils to prevail (64.53% probability) over Terence Atmane (35.47%), with a relatively short encounter expected: about 23.25 total games.

Match Analysis

Fils arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 30) with an Elo of 1801 and a form index of 53.9. He shows the edge on clay in the surface strength index (45.24 vs 38.99) and enters unburdened by tournament fatigue. Atmane is ranked 41 with a lower Elo (1622) but a stronger recent form index (61.8). Notably, Atmane’s serving and returning metrics are substantially higher: his mean serve index (98.55) exceeds Fils’s (74.27) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (92.03) is also well above Fils’s (64.09). Those gaps suggest Atmane can exert pressure on both serve and return phases despite the surface. Recent results paint a complementary picture. Fils has two wins (including a notable win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in Miami) and a recent loss to Jiri Lehecka — all on hard courts — indicating solid match form though not on clay in these samples. Atmane’s last three include a clean win over Ethan Quinn on clay and two three-set losses to higher-ranked opponents (Etcheverry on clay, Tiafoe on hard), showing competitive resilience and a capacity to extend matches even when not favoured.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Arthur Fils versus Terence Atmane. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Arthur Fils versus Terence Atmane. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Fils - Terence Atmane) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Arthur Fils wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Arthur Fils versus Terence Atmane. Positive values indicate Arthur Fils winning more games, negative values indicate Terence Atmane winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Arthur Fils versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 18.34 total and the predicted double faults sit at 4.9. On clay, fewer aces are typical because the slower surface reduces outright service winners, so the expected aces number is tempered by the court. Given Atmane’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to account for a larger share of the predicted aces; that said, clay’s characteristics also make the expected double faults figure—expected double faults—worth watching as rallies lengthen.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.3 Most likely: 18 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Arthur Fils versus Terence Atmane. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Arthur Fils versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Arthur Fils versus Terence Atmane. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Arthur Fils versus Terence Atmane. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Fils’s higher ranking, superior Elo and slightly better clay-specific index give him the overall edge in the projection. The critical factor to watch is Atmane’s serve/return firepower: if his big-serving game translates on clay, he can tilt the match despite the rating gap.

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