Paris Paris Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Arthur Rinderknech vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #68
32%
VS

Francisco Cerundolo

Rank: #20
68%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Francisco Cerundolo

Why the Model Favors Francisco Cerundolo

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +4.9 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall record & opposition quality +2.8 Francisco Cerundolo
Recent form +2.8 Francisco Cerundolo
Overall strength +2.8 Francisco Cerundolo
Surface fit +1.8 Francisco Cerundolo

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for Francisco Cerundolo. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current #68 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #29 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #24 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #31 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-11-03

Francisco Cerundolo

  • Current #20 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #27 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #19 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #21 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 38.8
ELO Rating: 1663.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1676.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.0
Clay: 19.3
Grass: 24.7
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 85.6

Francisco Cerundolo

Form Index: 35.9
ELO Rating: 1764.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1827.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.1
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 20.4
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 89.9

Recent Matches

Arthur Rinderknech
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Francisco Cerundolo
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Rinderknech
vs
0
Francisco Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cerundolo is favoured at 68%, with Rinderknech at 32%, and the match is projected to last 24.2 games. The Round of 64 in Paris pairs Cerundolo’s higher standing with Rinderknech’s stronger serve.

Match Analysis

Cerundolo’s recent record against this level of opposition is the strongest separator in his favour. He is ranked 20th to Rinderknech’s 68th and has the more reliable return, giving him a better chance to pressure the Frenchman’s service games. His overall strength and recent form also support the forecast, although neither player arrives on a winning streak in the listed results. Rinderknech’s serve gives him a route to keep the contest close, but Cerundolo has a slight advantage on hard courts and is better equipped to make rallies difficult for him. That return advantage matters against a player whose serve is his clearest weapon. Both have played in recent hard-court events, and neither has accumulated tournament fatigue in Paris.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Rinderknech - Francisco Cerundolo) -2.2 Most likely spread: -3 (Francisco Cerundolo wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Rinderknech is projected for 9.1 aces and 3.2 double faults, compared with 5.2 aces and 3.1 double faults for Cerundolo. Rinderknech’s stronger serve profile explains the ace gap, while Cerundolo’s better return could limit his opportunities for free points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.8 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Arthur Rinderknech 9.1 + Francisco Cerundolo 5.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Arthur Rinderknech 3.2 + Francisco Cerundolo 3.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Arthur Rinderknech

Expected 9.1 aces

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 5.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Arthur Rinderknech

Expected 3.2 double faults

Francisco Cerundolo

Expected 3.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Rinderknech's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (38.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

The forecast could shift if Rinderknech’s serve produces enough aces to keep Cerundolo from applying sustained pressure on return. If Cerundolo gets regular looks at second serves, his advantage in returning should become more important.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel