Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Ben Shelton vs Mackenzie McDonald Prediction

Ben Shelton

Rank: #8
70%
VS

Mackenzie McDonald

Rank: #95
30%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #8 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #13 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #20 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #23 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #14 2024-07-22

Mackenzie McDonald

  • Current #95 2025-07-21
  • 3 mo ago #97 2025-04-21
  • 6 mo ago #130 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #120 2024-10-21
  • 12 mo ago #97 2024-07-22

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 78.9
ELO Rating: 1650.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1713.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 15.6
Grass: 15.7
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 83.9

Mackenzie McDonald

Form Index: 39.7
ELO Rating: 460.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 65.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.6
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Bolt (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Mackenzie McDonald
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Colton Smith (2-0) hard Washington 65 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs George Loffhagen (0-2) grass Eastbourne 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (1-2) grass London 81 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Henry Searle (2-0) grass London 64 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Mackenzie McDonald
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Ben Shelton and Mackenzie McDonald at the ATP 500 tournament in Washington, DC, marks an exciting clash in the Round of 32. Shelton, currently ranked 8th, is favored to win with a probability of 70.05%, while McDonald, ranked 95th, holds a 29.95% chance. The predicted total number of games played is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Ben Shelton enters this match with a solid form index of 78.92 and an Elo rating of 1650.78, showcasing his competitive edge. He is currently fatigue-free at 0 minutes, which is a significant advantage heading into the match. His surface strength index of 13.37 indicates his proficiency on hard courts. Notably, Shelton’s mean serve index of 97.91 surpasses McDonald's by more than 5 points, emphasizing his powerful serving capabilities. In contrast, McDonald possesses a form index of 39.68 and an Elo rating of 460.39, reflecting a challenging stretch in his recent performances. He has accumulated 65 minutes of fatigue and a lower surface strength index of 5.62. Recent performances reveal stark contrasts between the two players. Shelton, despite a tough outing against Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon, won his prior two matches against Sonego and Fucsovics convincingly. McDonald, on the other hand, has struggled recently; he secured a win against Colton Smith in Washington but faced defeats against Khachanov and Loffhagen in earlier tournaments.

Final Prediction

Ben Shelton appears to have a significant edge due to his higher ranking, superior serve, and recent form. The key factor to watch will be Shelton's ability to control the match with his serve, which could prove crucial in dictating the pace and flow of play against McDonald.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel