Houston TX, U.S.A. Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Ben Shelton vs Zhizhen Zhang: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ben Shelton

Rank: #9
84%
VS

Zhizhen Zhang

Rank: #263
16%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Ben Shelton

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Ranking Trends

Ben Shelton

  • Current #9 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #9 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #6 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #10 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #14 2025-03-31

Zhizhen Zhang

  • Current #263 2026-03-30
  • 3 mo ago #410 2025-12-29
  • 6 mo ago #368 2025-09-29
  • 9 mo ago #122 2025-06-30
  • 12 mo ago #53 2025-03-31

Player Metrics

Ben Shelton

Form Index: 49.2
ELO Rating: 1904.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1925.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 64.1
Clay: 46.1
Grass: 49.5
Serve Rating: 81.9
Return Rating: 64.1

Zhizhen Zhang

Form Index: 34.8
ELO Rating: 1495.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1571.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 63.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.1
Clay: 38.2
Grass: 39.1
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 85.0

Recent Matches

Ben Shelton
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-2) hard Miami 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-2) hard Indian Wells 129 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-1) hard Indian Wells 132 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-1) hard Dallas 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (2-1) hard Dallas 156 min

Zhizhen Zhang
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jack Pinnington Jones (2-0) clay Houston 63 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Miami 65 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Dubai 110 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Doha 66 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Carballes Baena (2-0) hard Doha 74 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ben Shelton
vs
0
Zhizhen Zhang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Houston clay event in Texas, Round of 16 action pits No. 9 Ben Shelton against Zhizhen Zhang in a 250-level tournament. The model strongly favors Shelton (84.33% win probability) over Zhang (15.67%), with a predicted total of about 22.7 games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets outcome with relatively few service breaks overall.

Match Analysis

Shelton arrives as the clearly higher-ranked player (No. 9) with a superior Elo (1904.7) and a stronger recent form index (49.24 versus Zhang’s 34.84). His surface strength index on clay (46.08) is modest but above Zhang’s 38.18, and he carries no cumulative fatigue from this week. Zhang, ranked 263 with an Elo of 1495.7, has logged 63 minutes on court in Houston, a small but non-negligible fatigue factor on a physically demanding surface. Serve and return profiles are notable: Zhang’s mean serve index (98.18) is markedly higher than Shelton’s (81.92) — a gap of more than 16 points — while Zhang also posts a stronger mean return index (85.05) versus Shelton’s 64.05, another substantial margin. Recent form shows Shelton with one win (over Reilly Opelka) and two hard-court losses, while Zhang reached this round with a straight-sets win in Houston but had earlier defeats to Mannarino and Auger-Aliassime. Those results, combined with Shelton’s ranking and Elo advantage, underpin the prediction.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ben Shelton - Zhizhen Zhang) +3.1 Most likely spread: +3 (Ben Shelton wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 17.35 for the match and the predicted aces are tempered by clay’s slower pace and higher bounce, which generally reduces free points. The expected double faults are 4.7; longer rallies and physical wear on clay can increase double fault incidence late in sets. Zhang’s significantly higher serve rating suggests he will contribute a disproportionate share of the match’s aces, even if absolute counts are reduced by the surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.4 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.7 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shelton’s ranking, Elo edge and fresher legs give him the clear advantage on paper, despite Zhang’s impressive serve and return indices. A key factor to watch will be whether Zhang’s serving dominance can translate to enough free points to force extended sets; if not, Shelton’s overall quality should carry him through.

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