Toronto
Canada
Hard
Masters 1000
Semifinals
Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults
Expected Total Games:
29.3
Predicted Winner:
Rafael Jodar
Why the Model Favors Rafael Jodar
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 57% for Rafael Jodar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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Set it upRanking Trends
Rafael Jodar
- Current #24 2026-07-27
- 3 mo ago #34 2026-05-04
- 6 mo ago #124 2026-02-02
- 9 mo ago #166 2025-11-03
- 12 mo ago #478 2025-07-28
Brandon Nakashima
- Current #33 2026-07-27
- 3 mo ago #32 2026-05-04
- 6 mo ago #32 2026-02-02
- 9 mo ago #33 2025-11-03
- 12 mo ago #31 2025-08-04
Player Metrics
Rafael Jodar
Form Index:
87.8
ELO Rating:
2004.2
Glicko2 Rating:
1958.9
Current Fatigue (minutes):
408.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
44.2
Clay:
37.5
Grass:
12.1
Serve Rating:
95.9
Return Rating:
91.9
Brandon Nakashima
Form Index:
73.3
ELO Rating:
1830.3
Glicko2 Rating:
1820.2
Current Fatigue (minutes):
462.0
Surface Strength:
Hard:
37.4
Clay:
19.4
Grass:
21.2
Serve Rating:
97.0
Return Rating:
86.5
Recent Matches
Rafael Jodar
- Last Match: vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Toronto 102 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Toronto 74 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) hard Toronto 95 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Corentin Moutet (2-1) hard Toronto 137 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Alejandro Tabilo (2-1) hard Washington 143 min
Brandon Nakashima
- Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-0) hard Toronto 77 min
- 2nd Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-1) hard Toronto 171 min
- 3rd Last Match: vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) hard Toronto 151 min
- 4th Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Toronto 63 min
- 5th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) hard Washington 106 min
Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)
0
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto Masters 1000, hard court semifinal in Canada pits Rafael Jodar against Brandon Nakashima with a lot on the line. The model leans to Jodar as the projected winner — 57.01% for Jodar vs 42.99% for Nakashima — with an expected 29.33 total games in the match.
Match Analysis
The model’s edge for Jodar comes mainly from his recent form at this level and a better fit to the surface. Jodar arrives ranked 24 with a strong form index (87.8) and a higher Elo (2004.18) than Nakashima (rank 33, form 73.29, Elo 1830.35). His surface strength index (44.17) is noticeably better than Nakashima’s 37.37, which aligns with the surface-fit factor pushing the prediction toward Jodar. Recent record by level also favors Jodar: he has three straight dominant wins in Toronto, all in straight sets (wins over Musetti, Lehecka and Fils), whereas Nakashima’s path, while unbeaten, included two long three-set battles and much heavier minutes on court.
Serve and return dynamics are mixed. Nakashima’s mean serve index (97.04) is marginally higher than Jodar’s (95.93), which is why the model gives a small serve & return credit to Nakashima; however Jodar’s mean return index (91.93) is meaningfully higher than Nakashima’s (86.54) and should neutralize many of Nakashima’s free points. Fatigue is also a factor: Nakashima has accumulated 462 minutes this week versus Jodar’s 408, and those extended matches could sap his edge late in rallies.
Total Games Predictions
Expected Total Games in Match
29.3
Most likely outcome: 29 games
Total Games Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total games outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total games ≤ X
Games Spread Predictions
Expected Games Spread (Rafael Jodar - Brandon Nakashima)
+0.1
Most likely spread:
0 (even number of games won)
Games Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each games spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
Aces and Double Faults Predictions
The aces prediction sits at about 13.99 for the match with an expected double faults total of 4.43. On hard courts, which favor both big servers and strong returners, this predicted aces total is moderate — neither extreme serve fest nor serve-light affair. Because neither player holds a significantly higher serve rating, the predicted aces are driven more by point length and occasions of free points than by one dominant server. The double faults prediction is modest and consistent with both players’ serving profiles.
Expected Total Aces
14.0
Most likely: 13 aces
Expected Total Double Faults
4.4
Most likely: 4 double faults
Aces Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each ace count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of aces ≤ X
Double Faults Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each double fault count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of double faults ≤ X
Match Format Predictions
Tiebreak Likelihood
Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match
38.4%
Predicted:
No tiebreak
Exact Score Distribution BO3
Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Rafael Jodar's perspective)
2-0
Most likely set score (32.9%)
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Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
Final Prediction
Jodar’s edge comes primarily from recent results at this level and a slightly better surface fit — the top model driver — supported by stronger return numbers and lower accumulated minutes. Watch Jodar’s return impact early on; if he breaks Nakashima’s first-serve rhythm, it could decide the match.
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