Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Brandon Nakashima vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #17
82%
VS

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #50
18%
Expected Total Games: 39.1
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Why the Model Favors Brandon Nakashima

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.9 Brandon Nakashima
Serve & return game +8.4 Brandon Nakashima
Surface fit +7.0 Brandon Nakashima
Overall strength +3.3 Brandon Nakashima
Recent form +2.4 Brandon Nakashima

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 82% for Brandon Nakashima. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #17 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #35 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #30 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #33 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-08-25

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #50 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #64 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #53 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #45 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #39 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 51.6
ELO Rating: 1897.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1852.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 43.4
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 88.3

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 39.7
ELO Rating: 1619.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1706.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.3
Clay: 17.8
Grass: 9.7
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Sebastian Baez
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
0
Sebastian Baez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, first round on hard courts, Brandon Nakashima is favored to advance over Sebastian Baez. The model projects Nakashima to win with 81.85% probability versus 18.15% for Baez, and it expects about 39.09 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Nakashima comes mainly from recent record by level (+9.9 percentage points) and serve and return game (+8.4 points), with surface fit (+7.0), overall strength (+3.3) and recent form (+2.4) also contributing. Those drivers match the underlying numbers. Nakashima is the higher-ranked player at 17, with a form index of 51.57 and an Elo of 1897.55. He enters with no tournament fatigue and a surface strength index of 43.36, indicating a comfortable hard court profile. Baez is ranked 50, with a lower form index of 39.71 and an Elo of 1619.90. He also reports no tournament fatigue, but his surface strength index is only 20.26, which the model penalizes on this surface. Nakashima’s recent three-match slate on hard courts reads two wins then a loss in Cincinnati, with victories over Taylor Fritz and Nuno Borges followed by a defeat to Frances Tiafoe. That sequence supports the model’s level-adjusted confidence. Baez’s last three results are mixed, with a win over Hugo Grenier sandwiched between losses to Learner Tien and Juan Manuel Cerundolo. On hard courts Baez has shown flashes but not the same consistency or surface fit that Nakashima brings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.1 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Brandon Nakashima - Sebastian Baez) +3.3 Most likely spread: +3 (Brandon Nakashima wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 16.1 total, with projected aces of 11.54 for Nakashima and 4.69 for Baez. The predicted aces reflect Nakashima’s stronger serving output in this model, though neither player’s serve gap is extreme. The double faults prediction totals 6.53, split as 3.07 for Nakashima and 3.46 for Baez. On hard courts, a medium paced surface, those expected aces and expected double faults are consistent with a match where big serving can pay off but returns remain important.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.1 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Brandon Nakashima 11.5 + Sebastian Baez 4.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.5 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Brandon Nakashima 3.1 + Sebastian Baez 3.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 11.5 aces

Sebastian Baez

Expected 4.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 3.1 double faults

Sebastian Baez

Expected 3.5 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Brandon Nakashima's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (46.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Nakashima’s clear advantage stems primarily from his recent record at higher levels and the combined serve and return metrics. Watch his serve holds and first-serve effectiveness early, because if Nakashima controls service games the match should swing heavily in his direction.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel