Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Cristian Garin Prediction

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #56
40%
VS

Cristian Garin

Rank: #110
60%
Expected Total Games: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Cristian Garin

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Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #56 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #60 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #94 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #104 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #96 2024-07-15

Cristian Garin

  • Current #110 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #158 2025-04-14
  • 6 mo ago #150 2025-01-13
  • 9 mo ago #129 2024-10-14
  • 12 mo ago #106 2024-07-15

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 7.0
ELO Rating: 760.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 6.5
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 88.8

Cristian Garin

Form Index: 53.3
ELO Rating: 512.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1573.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.7
Clay: 5.6
Grass: 4.0
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Cristian Garin
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Chris Rodesch (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Giulio Zeppieri (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hady Habib (1-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Blanchet (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Cristian Garin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the ATP 250 tournament in Båstad, Sweden, features Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Cristian Garin in the Round of 32 on clay. Cristian Garin is favored to win, with a probability of 59.63%, while Camilo Ugo Carabelli stands at 40.37%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated to be 22.0.

Match Analysis

Camilo Ugo Carabelli holds a rank of 56 with a form index of 7.03 and an Elo rating of 760.65, indicating a solid performance level. His surface strength index stands at 6.53, which suggests he is reasonably effective on clay. Meanwhile, Cristian Garin is ranked 110 with a higher form index of 53.31 and an Elo rating of 512.41, although his surface strength index of 5.60 is lower than Carabelli's. Notably, Carabelli possesses a mean serve index of 96.45 compared to Garin's 94.52, indicating a greater serving capability, but their mean return indices are closely matched, with Carabelli at 88.82 and Garin at 87.11. In their recent performances, both players have struggled on grass, but Garin has shown a slightly better form, winning one of his last three matches against Chris Rodesch, while Carabelli has not secured a victory in his last three outings. This recent form could influence their mental game as they transition back to clay, where Carabelli has a slight edge in surface performance.

Final Prediction

Cristian Garin's higher form index and recent victory provide him with a psychological advantage going into this match. Additionally, with both players entering this match with no accumulated fatigue, the outcome may hinge on Garin's ability to capitalize on his experience and consistency on the clay surface.

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