Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #61
36%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #22
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

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Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #61 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #46 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #49 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-05-19

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current #22 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #28 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #30 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 39.6
ELO Rating: 1594.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1645.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 119.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 17.5
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 93.6

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 51.8
ELO Rating: 1805.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1848.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.2
Clay: 27.7
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Frances Tiafoe
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Hamburg 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (0-2) clay Rome 116 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (2-1) clay Rome 163 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) clay Houston 165 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-1) clay Houston 167 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Hamburg, Germany — round of 16 on clay at an ATP 500-level event pits Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Frances Tiafoe in a matchup that favors the American. The model projects Tiafoe to win with a 64.01% probability against Carabelli’s 35.99%, with an expected total of about 23.4 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tiafoe arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 22) with a stronger Elo (1805.7) and a superior form index (51.8) compared with Carabelli’s rank of 61, Elo 1594.1 and form 39.6. Carabelli has slightly higher mean serve and return indices on paper, but the return gap is notable in the other direction: Carabelli’s mean return index (93.6) exceeds Tiafoe’s (86.7) by roughly 7 points, which suggests Carabelli can be dangerous on opponents’ serves. Fatigue is a factor — Carabelli has logged 119 minutes on court in this event versus Tiafoe’s 94 — and that could blunt Carabelli’s output as matches lengthen. On clay, Tiafoe’s better surface strength index (27.7 vs 17.5) also works in his favor. Form in recent matches tells a consistent story: Carabelli scraped through his Hamburg opener in three sets after back-to-back losses in Rome and Madrid, showing resilience but also heavy court time. Tiafoe’s recent slate includes a straight-sets win in Hamburg and a 2-1 win and a 0-2 loss on clay in Rome, indicating a more mixed but overall steadier trend and less cumulative wear this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Frances Tiafoe) -1.5 Most likely spread: -2 (Frances Tiafoe wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at a modest 9.3 total, and the predicted aces figure reflects clay’s tendency to reduce outright winners off the serve. The expected double faults number is 4.94; double faults prediction is elevated slightly because longer rallies and accumulated minutes can increase unforced serving errors. Neither player has a markedly superior serve index (difference <5), so this projected ace count is driven more by surface than by a single dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.3 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Camilo Ugo Carabelli's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (39.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tiafoe’s higher ranking, Elo and fresher legs give him the edge on clay in Hamburg. Watch the early return exchanges: if Carabelli’s strong return game breaks Tiafoe’s rhythm, the match could become tighter than the probabilities suggest.

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