Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #48
41%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #64
59%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Francisco Comesana

Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current Rank: #48 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #49 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #47 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #60 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #87 (2025-02-10)

Francisco Comesana

  • Current Rank: #64 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #61 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #71 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #63 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #84 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 5.1
ELO Rating: 959.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 7.0
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 75.9
Return Rating: 68.0

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 32.2
ELO Rating: 793.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 8.0
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 91.6

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Auckland 62 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Brisbane 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) hard Paris 155 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (2-0) hard Paris 114 min

Francisco Comesana
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Auckland 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Auckland 80 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Juncheng Shang (0-2) hard Hong Kong 77 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Buenos Aires ATP 250 round of 32 match on clay pits Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Francisco Comesana in Argentina. The model favors Comesana to win (59.40%) over Carabelli (40.60%), with a predicted total of about 22.39 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Carabelli enters with the higher ranking (48) and a stronger Elo (959.38), but his form index is very low (5.11) and he arrives without match minutes (fatigue 0.0). His surface strength index on clay is 6.99 and his mean serve index is 75.85 with a mean return index of 67.95. Comesana is ranked 64 with a lower Elo (793.89) but a markedly better recent form index (32.16) and the same zero fatigue. His surface strength index is slightly higher at 8.00. Notably, Comesana's mean serve (98.21) is much higher than Carabelli's (difference > 5 points), and his mean return (91.62) also exceeds Carabelli's by a wide margin. Recent match patterns reinforce those metrics: Carabelli has lost his last three matches (all on hard courts), failing to win a set in those outings. Comesana has mixed results but a more positive short-term trend—one win and two losses in his last three, including a best-of-five appearance at a major where he took a set off a top opponent. Both players come into Buenos Aires with no accumulated fatigue from the event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 15.35 for the match while the predicted double faults total is 3.91. On clay, expected aces are generally lower due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, which favors returners; this surface context likely suppresses the predicted aces despite Comesana’s higher serve index. Given Comesana’s significantly higher serve rating, he is the primary candidate to generate the bulk of the predicted aces, while the expected double faults may creep up later as rallies and physical demand increase.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Comesana’s superior recent form and much stronger serve/return indices give him the edge on clay despite Carabelli’s higher ranking and Elo. The key factor to watch is how effectively Comesana’s serve translates into free points on clay and whether Carabelli can neutralize that advantage with returns.

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