Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #64
43%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #14
57%
Expected Total Games: 22.9
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

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Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #64 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #47 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #50 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #59 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-04-14

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #14 2026-04-13
  • 3 mo ago #17 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #10 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 51.9
ELO Rating: 1593.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1629.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.8
Clay: 40.9
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 78.5
Return Rating: 74.6

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 33.9
ELO Rating: 1636.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1664.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.5
Clay: 43.1
Grass: 47.6
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Karen Khachanov
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Barcelona round of 32 on clay sets up an intriguing contrast between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Karen Khachanov in an ATP 500 event in Spain. The model favors Karen Khachanov (56.60%) over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (43.40%), with a predicted total of about 22.94 games — a likely straight‑sets or quick three‑setter on slow clay.

Match Analysis

Carabelli (rank 64) arrives with a healthier recent run on clay and a solid form index (51.85) and Elo of 1593.5. His surface strength index is 40.9, and he shows balanced all‑court traits with a mean serve index of 78.48 and a mean return index of 74.65. Khachanov (rank 14) carries a higher Elo (1636.5) despite a lower form index (33.90); his surface strength index is 43.15. Notably Khachanov’s mean serve index (97.59) is substantially higher than Carabelli’s — a gap well over 5 points — and his mean return index (89.50) also exceeds Carabelli’s by a wide margin. Recent form contrasts: Carabelli won two matches in Marrakech before a straight‑sets loss in his last outing, showing endurance in long clay matches (match lengths 140 and 149 minutes). Khachanov’s last three matches include two recent losses (Monte Carlo and Miami) and a win over Roberto Bautista Agut earlier, suggesting mixed momentum but still a higher ceiling given his serve and return metrics. Both enter this match without tournament fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.9 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Karen Khachanov) +4.1 Most likely spread: +4 (Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 12.32 combined, with a double faults prediction of 5.67 expected overall. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower and expected double faults can rise as long rallies and physical demand take their toll — the expected double faults figure reflects that. Khachanov’s much higher serve rating should drive the predicted aces count and be a decisive factor on service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.3 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s superior serve and return indices give him the edge on paper despite Carabelli’s recent clay outcomes and stamina. The key factor to watch is Khachanov’s serve consistency — if he converts free points without piling up double faults, he should close this in fewer games.

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