Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Semifinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
56%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #3
44%
Expected Total Games: 36.6
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #1 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #1 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #3 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-01-13

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #3 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #2 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #2 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 99.8
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2203.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 50.3
Return Rating: 54.1

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 5105.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2264.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.0
Clay: 38.6
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Alexander Zverev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Alexander Zverev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the semifinals of the Australian Open approach, the hard court surface will serve as a battleground for the top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz and the formidable Alexander Zverev. With Alcaraz holding a slight edge as the predicted winner at a probability of 55.80% compared to Zverev's 44.20%, fans can expect a tightly contested match with an anticipated total of approximately 36.59 games played.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, ranked number 1, boasts an impressive form index of 99.82 and an Elo rating of 12050, reflecting his exceptional performance throughout the tournament. His fatigue level is at 870 minutes, yet his surface strength index stands at a perfect 100.0, indicating his dominance on hard courts. In addition, his mean serve index of 50.32 and mean return index of 54.10 suggest solid all-around capabilities, although the difference in serving prowess is not significant. Conversely, Alexander Zverev ranks third, showcasing a perfect form index of 100.0 and an Elo rating of 5105. His fatigue level mirrors Alcaraz at 870 minutes, but his surface strength index is notably lower at 37.98. Zverev's mean serve index is notably higher at 97.71, while his mean return index of 94.54 indicates he can be a formidable opponent on both serve and return. Recent performances reveal that both players have been impressive, with Alcaraz winning all three of his last matches in straight sets, while Zverev also won his last three, but with one set dropped.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.6 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Alexander Zverev) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Alexander Zverev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.57 aces and approximately 4.47 double faults. Hard courts typically offer a balanced environment for serving, enabling both players to capitalize on their serving strengths without excessive risk. Zverev’s significantly higher serve index could imply a higher ace count, but Alcaraz’s strong return game may counterbalance this potential advantage, keeping the ace prediction competitive.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's slight edge in form, combined with his perfect surface strength, gives him a favorable position heading into the match against Zverev. A key factor to watch will be how effectively both players can utilize their serve and return capabilities, particularly in critical moments of the match.

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