Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
71%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #15
29%
Expected Total Games: 21.4
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #1 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #1 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #2 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-02-17

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #15 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #16 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #15 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #17 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 78.4
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2208.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 52.5
Return Rating: 50.2

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 71.6
ELO Rating: 2401.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1855.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 240.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.6
Clay: 20.3
Grass: 20.7
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 90.0

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-1) hard Doha 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Doha 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) hard Doha 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Novak Djokovic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) hard Doha 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) hard Doha 67 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) hard Doha 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This is a hard‑court semifinal in Doha (atp_500 level) between world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 15 Andrey Rublev. The model favors Carlos Alcaraz to win with a 71.24% probability against Rublev’s 28.76%, and it projects a relatively short match of about 21.36 total games.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz arrives as the top-ranked player with an exceptional surface strength index of 100 and an Elo rating of 12050.0, reflecting strong form (form index 78.40) despite higher cumulative fatigue in the event (348 minutes). Rublev, ranked 15, shows solid recent form (71.58) with much lower tournament fatigue (240 minutes) but a low surface strength index (14.58) on hard courts. There is a marked gap in serving and returning profiles: Rublev’s mean serve index (97.73) far outstrips Alcaraz’s (52.46), and his mean return index (89.996) also substantially exceeds Alcaraz’s (50.21), differences that are likely to shape pivotal points. Both players are in winning rhythm this week. Alcaraz has three straight wins in Doha, including a taxing 2–1 win over Karen Khachanov (146 minutes) and two straight‑set victories earlier. Rublev is unbeaten in three matches as well, all straight‑set victories, including a 95‑minute quarterfinal over Stefanos Tsitsipas; his matches have been shorter overall, suggesting fresher legs.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.4 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Andrey Rublev) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Andrey Rublev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 10.57 total, with a predicted aces split likely favoring Rublev given his very high serve index. The expected double faults are 4.47 for the match; double faults prediction should account for both aggressive serving and fatigue. On medium‑paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate — the surface helps servers but is not as extreme as grass — and Rublev’s superior serving profile is the main driver of the higher ace expectation.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Alcaraz’s advantage comes from elite overall metrics (ranking, Elo, surface strength and match wins this week) despite heavier minutes on court. The key factor to watch is Rublev’s serve: if it fires consistently he can shorten points and tilt the match, but Alcaraz’s baseline versatility and top surface index give him the edge.

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