Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alcaraz enters as the clear favorite by ranking (1) and model metrics: a form index of 75.13, an Elo rating of 12050.0 and a surface strength index at the maximum 100.0. He has accrued 470 minutes on court this week, indicating more cumulative fatigue than his opponent but also more high-quality match time in Doha. Fils is ranked 42 with a form index of 67.33 and an Elo of 1436.02; his surface strength index (13.48) is substantially lower than Alcaraz’s, which will likely matter on a medium-paced hard court that rewards consistent movement and shot-making. Serving and returning profiles show a pronounced split: Fils’ mean serve index (97.41) is far higher than Alcaraz’s (52.65), a difference well over 5 points, and his mean return index (90.23) also exceeds Alcaraz’s (51.04) by a wide margin. These contrasts suggest Fils brings elite serving and returning figures in the underlying indices, but the disparity in surface strength and Alcaraz’s superior Elo and form tilt the matchup toward Alcaraz. Both players won all three Doha matches to reach the final; Alcaraz’s recent wins included longer matches (95–146–122 minutes) while Fils’ victories were consistently shorter (89–89–95 minutes), reflecting differing paths with Alcaraz spending more time on court.