Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Carlos Alcaraz vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #1
73%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #34
27%
Expected Total Games: 35.6
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #1 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #1 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #2 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #3 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-01-13

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #34 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #59 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #82 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #69 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 94.0
ELO Rating: 12050.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2201.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 51.0
Return Rating: 53.1

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 76.7
ELO Rating: 1384.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.1
Clay: 30.9
Grass: 35.5
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (1-2) hard Paris 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Tokio 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Tokio 128 min

Corentin Moutet
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The round of 32 at the Australian Open features a matchup between world number one Carlos Alcaraz and the 34th-ranked Corentin Moutet. Played on hard courts in Australia, Alcaraz is favored to win with a probability of 73.35%, while Moutet stands at 26.65%. The predicted total number of games in this match is approximately 35.6.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, currently ranked first with a form index of 94.04 and an Elo rating of 12050, showcases exceptional performance metrics. His surface strength index is perfect at 100, indicating dominance on hard courts. In contrast, Corentin Moutet, ranked 34, possesses a form index of 76.67 and an Elo rating of around 1384. Notably, Alcaraz’s mean serve index (51.03) significantly lags behind Moutet’s (96.89) by more than 5 points. Additionally, while Alcaraz has a mean return index of 53.11, Moutet's return index of 94.48 also exceeds Alcaraz's by over 5 points, making Moutet a formidable opponent on returns. Recent performances highlight Alcaraz’s strong form, as he has won his last two matches at the Australian Open without dropping a set. Conversely, Moutet has also shown resilience, winning his last two matches but has displayed some vulnerabilities, dropping a set in one of those encounters. Despite both players accumulating 348 minutes of fatigue in this tournament, Alcaraz's recent match outcomes suggest he is in a more dominant position.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 35.6 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Corentin Moutet) +2.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total number of aces in this match is approximately 15.92, while the expected double faults are around 5.94. Given the medium-paced nature of hard courts, both players are likely to achieve a moderate number of aces. Moutet’s superior serve index could influence the aces prediction, potentially leading to a higher ace count for him, but the balance provided by Alcaraz's strong return game may offset this.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's edge stems from his ranking, recent performance, and overall strength on hard courts, despite a lower serve index. One key factor to watch will be how Moutet’s powerful serve holds up against Alcaraz’s exceptional return capabilities, which could be pivotal in determining the match outcome.

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