Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Finals

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #3
74%
VS

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #23
26%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Why the Model Favors Carlos Alcaraz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.2 Carlos Alcaraz
Overall strength +10.1 Carlos Alcaraz
Surface fit +9.3 Carlos Alcaraz
Serve & return game +4.8 Jiri Lehecka
Overall record & opposition quality +4.3 Carlos Alcaraz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Carlos Alcaraz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current #3 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #2 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #1 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #1 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #1 2025-09-29

Jiri Lehecka

  • Current #23 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #14 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #18 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 57.7
ELO Rating: 2327.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2632.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 489.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 64.2
Clay: 95.5
Grass: 97.6
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 93.7

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 58.3
ELO Rating: 1873.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1861.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 468.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.8
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Jiri Lehecka
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Carlos Alcaraz
vs
1
Jiri Lehecka
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Carlos Alcaraz is favoured 74% to Jiri Lehecka’s 26%, with 23.3 total games expected. The forecast gives Alcaraz a clear advantage in this Tokyo Finals match.

Match Analysis

Alcaraz’s higher ranking and stronger overall level are central to the gap between them. He also has the better hard-court fit, giving him an advantage in conditions where his return game can help put pressure on Lehecka’s service games. Both players have won their last three matches in Tokyo, but Alcaraz’s wins over Denis Shapovalov and Jaume Munar underline the strength of his run. Lehecka has also been efficient, with straight-set wins over Valentin Vacherot and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, and his serve-and-return game is the main counterweight to Alcaraz’s broader advantages.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Carlos Alcaraz - Jiri Lehecka) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Carlos Alcaraz wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Lehecka is projected to hit 6.5 aces, compared with 4.6 for Alcaraz, reflecting his advantage in the serve-and-return matchup. The double-fault estimates are nearly level, at 2.0 apiece.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.0 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Carlos Alcaraz 4.6 + Jiri Lehecka 6.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.0 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Carlos Alcaraz 2.0 + Jiri Lehecka 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 4.6 aces

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 6.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Carlos Alcaraz

Expected 2.0 double faults

Jiri Lehecka

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Carlos Alcaraz's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (37.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Lehecka’s serve-and-return edge is the specific route to an upset. If he can use it to keep Alcaraz from gaining control on return, the forecast could narrow.

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