Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alcaraz arrives with top-end indicators: rank 1, a form index of 82.14, an Elo of 12,050 and excellent surface strength (100.0). He has logged 202 minutes at this event so far. Khachanov carries a lower form index (65.06), an Elo reported at ~2001.16, and slightly heavier cumulative fatigue (236 minutes). His surface strength index is markedly lower (12.31), which contrasts sharply with Alcaraz’s adaptation to hard courts. Serve and return profiles are notably different. Khachanov’s mean serve index (97.45) dwarfs Alcaraz’s (51.61) by over 45 points, a gap worth flagging for service-dominated moments. Khachanov also posts a much higher mean return index (90.41) compared with Alcaraz (50.16), another large gap that suggests different stylistic edges on both serve and return metrics. Over their recent three matches, Alcaraz is 3-0 (wins vs. Royer, Rinderknech, Djokovic) with long recent court time including a 174-minute match. Khachanov is 2-1 in his last three (wins over Fucsovics and Mochizuki, a prior loss to Munar) with slightly longer aggregate minutes this week.