Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Alcaraz comes mainly from overall strength and surface fit. Overall strength contributes +12.7 percentage points in Alcarazs favor, reflected in his much higher Elo (2429 versus Safiullins 1777) and world rank (3 versus 98). Surface fit adds another +10.1 points. Alcaraz posts a surface strength index of 66.76 on hard courts compared with Safiullins 14.80, which explains why the model views this venue as highly favorable to Alcaraz despite Safiullins solid recent form index. Recent form by level also leans to Alcaraz (+9.3 points). Safiullin has a mixed run: a straight sets win at Wimbledon over Joao Fonseca, followed by two losses to Novak Djokovic and Hugo Grenier. Alcaraz has two recent wins and a loss against top opposition, showing the kind of results the model rewards. Serve and return considerations add a smaller advantage to Alcaraz (+3.4 points). Both players register high serve indices (Safiullin 95.96, Alcaraz 97.02) and strong return indices (Safiullin 88.16, Alcaraz 91.76), giving Alcaraz a modest edge in all-round play. Fatigue is not a factor for either player, both registering 0 minutes on court in this event.