Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Alcaraz comes mainly from overall strength (11.1 percentage points) and surface fit (7.8 points), with additional weight from recent results at this level (6.8 points), head-to-head history (5.0 points), and serve and return metrics (2.8 points). Those driver values reflect the raw numbers. Alcaraz sits at world rank 3 with an Elo of 2435.28 and a surface strength index of 67.87. Paul is ranked 21 with an Elo of 1903.89 and a surface strength of 42.92. Both players show identical reported cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes in the event, so court time is not a differentiator on paper. Form indexes differ with Paul at 73.34 and Alcaraz at 61.37, indicating Paul has been recording steady results recently but the underlying class gap remains wide. Mean serve and return indexes are very similar for these two players, about 96.6 to 96.8 on serve and 91.4 to 91.7 on return, so no large serve or return mismatch is expected going into the match. Over the last three rounds both men are unbeaten here. Paul posted three wins including a five set win over Alexander Bublik and two four set victories. Alcaraz has three straight wins with two straight 3-0 performances and a 3-1 win in his run.