Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Casper Ruud vs Aleksandar Vukic Prediction

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
66%
VS

Aleksandar Vukic

Rank: #93
34%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Player Metrics

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 58.1
ELO Rating: 3109.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1784.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 197.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.9
Clay: 30.6
Grass: 34.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 85.9

Aleksandar Vukic

Form Index: 62.6
ELO Rating: 781.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 425.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.3
Clay: 5.1
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.2

Recent Matches

Casper Ruud

Aleksandar Vukic

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Casper Ruud
vs
1
Aleksandar Vukic
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinals of the ATP 500 tournament in Tokyo presents an exciting matchup between Casper Ruud and Aleksandar Vukic on hard courts. With a probability of winning at 66.31%, Casper Ruud is favored over Vukic, who has a 33.69% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played in this contest is set at 23.0.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud enters this match ranked 12th in the world, showcasing a solid form index of 58.07 and a robust Elo rating of 3109.40. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is relatively low at 197 minutes, allowing for optimal performance. Ruud's surface strength index of 18.91 indicates his proficiency on hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.90 and a mean return index of 85.85, which both reflect his strong game on this surface. In contrast, Aleksandar Vukic is ranked 93rd, with a slightly higher form index of 62.56 but a significantly lower Elo rating of 781.38. Vukic's fatigue level is notable at 425 minutes, which could impact his endurance. His surface strength index stands at 7.29, with a mean serve index of 96.09 and a mean return index of 86.15, signaling competitive capabilities but not matching Ruud's overall effectiveness. Recent performances show that Ruud has won two of his last three matches, including a decisive victory against Matteo Berrettini, where he did not drop a set. Vukic, on the other hand, has shown promising form by winning all three of his recent matches, including a straight-sets win against Daniel Altmaier. However, the level of competition faced by Vukic in this tournament has not matched that of Ruud, which may factor into their head-to-head encounter.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud holds a clear edge over Aleksandar Vukic due to his higher ranking, lower fatigue levels, and superior performance metrics on hard courts. A key factor to watch will be Ruud's serve efficiency, as his ability to maintain a strong serve could dictate the pace of the match and limit Vukic's chances.

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