Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #92
36%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Current #92 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #95 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #91 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #103 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-03-03

Casper Ruud

  • Current #12 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #12 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 44.4
ELO Rating: 690.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 130.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.9
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 70.5
Return Rating: 61.8

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 40.9
ELO Rating: 2414.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1899.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.4
Clay: 22.3
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Alexander Shevchenko
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Casper Ruud
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (0-2) hard Acapulco 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (1-2) hard Delray Beach 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Delray Beach 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Shevchenko
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Indian Wells, CA — Round of 64 on hard courts at a Masters 1000 event sets up a contrast in styles as Alexander Shevchenko meets Casper Ruud. The model favors Ruud, projecting a 64.16% chance of victory versus 35.84% for Shevchenko, with an expected total of about 23.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Shevchenko arrives ranked 92 with an Elo of 690.5, a form index of 44.4 and 130 minutes of court time already at this event, which indicates some recent match wear. His surface strength index is low (3.85) but his mean serve index (70.5) and return index (61.8) show he can hold his own on hard courts. He has one win in his last three (a 2-1 victory at Indian Wells) after back-to-back losses in Dubai to Khachanov and Halys; those matches were long and suggest he can be pushed physically. Ruud is the clear statistical favorite: world No. 12 by rank and an Elo of 2414.9, form index 40.9 and no accumulated fatigue in this tournament. His surface strength index (14.41) is higher than Shevchenko’s, and he posts markedly superior serving and returning numbers — mean serve index 97.48 vs Shevchenko’s 70.50 (a difference well over 5 points) and mean return index 86.68 vs 61.82 (also a large gap). Recent results are mixed: a win over Giron followed by losses to Korda and Wu, all on hard courts, so Ruud has been tested but remains the more complete player on paper.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Shevchenko - Casper Ruud) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at roughly 19.4 total, with an expected double faults figure near 5.7. On a medium-paced hard court that tends to produce a moderate number of aces, Ruud’s significantly higher serve rating should lift the predicted aces count while Shevchenko’s steadier but less powerful serve tempers it. The expected double faults remain modest, but serve aggressiveness from Ruud could contribute a chunk of those numbers.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Ruud’s superior Elo, serving and returning metrics give him the edge in this matchup; the model’s probability reflects that margin. Watch Ruud’s serve-return exchanges early — how often he converts free points on serve will likely decide whether this becomes a short affair or stretches into extended sets.

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