Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Mattia Bellucci vs Casper Ruud: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #73
31%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
69%
Expected Total Games: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current #73 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #77 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #63 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #66 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #100 2025-01-13

Casper Ruud

  • Current #12 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #11 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #12 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 21.6
ELO Rating: 722.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1556.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.2
Clay: 5.6
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 76.4
Return Rating: 61.5

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 26.3
ELO Rating: 2644.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1915.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 41.6
Clay: 55.1
Grass: 57.5
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 91.0

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Casper Ruud
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2026 Australian Open, Mattia Bellucci faces off against Casper Ruud on hard courts in Australia. With Ruud boasting a higher ranking and stronger recent performances, he is predicted to emerge victorious with a win probability of 69.06%, compared to Bellucci's 30.94%. The expected total games in this match are approximately 38.96.

Match Analysis

Mattia Bellucci holds a rank of 73 and has a form index of 21.59, suggesting he may be struggling for consistency. His Elo rating of 722.78 reflects a significant gap compared to Casper Ruud, who is ranked 12th with a form index of 26.34 and a much higher Elo rating of 2644.40. Both players show no recent fatigue from matches in this tournament, but Ruud's surface strength index (41.64) far surpasses Bellucci's (4.22), indicating his superior capacity on hard courts. Furthermore, Ruud's mean serve index of 97.75 is significantly higher than Bellucci's 76.39, a difference that could play a pivotal role in the match. In their last three matches, Bellucci won only once against Geoffrey Blancaneaux, while he lost his last two matches against Hamad Medjedovic and Pablo Carreno Busta. Conversely, Ruud has faced a series of defeats against tough opponents, including Fabian Marozsan and Daniel Altmaier, but his overall performance level remains considerably higher, indicating that he is still a formidable competitor despite recent losses.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.0 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mattia Bellucci - Casper Ruud) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Casper Ruud wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.95 aces and 5.02 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which balances the advantages of both powerful servers and skilled returners, these predictions are reasonable. With Ruud's significantly higher mean serve index, he is likely to dominate the aces prediction, potentially leading to a higher count of aces than Bellucci.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud's superior ranking, form, and serve strength provide him with a clear advantage over Mattia Bellucci. A key factor to watch will be Ruud's service game, as his ability to generate aces will likely set the tone for the match and could prove critical in securing his advancement in the tournament.

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